Egypt Population Growth is a Ticking Bomb

The Egyptian Census Department has recently issued a report about population. It stated that if the birth rated continues at the present rate 3%/per year, Egypt will reach 191.3 million people by 2052. The negative impact will be on the country’s economy.

 The Census Report mentions the need for the development of the educational system. For instance, the government needs to build 27,000 elementary schools, 12,000 junior high schools, and 4000 secondary schools. Accordingly, it will need 27 million staff members including new teachers. It will also have to increase the number of health care staff from the available 214,000 since 2017 to 4d29,000 in 2052.

From a demographic point of view, society requires 2.5% national economic growth for every one percent of population growth.

Hence, based on the theoretical theory, Egypt requires 7.0-7.5% national growth per year in order to maintain economic stability.

In this post I would like to stress the fact that the present Egypt’s population growth can be viewed as a ticking bomb.

The problem of the Egyptian population growth was officially recognized in the 50s by President Nasser, although the population at that time was approximately 30 million.

The policy of Family planning and Birth control programs were initiated in the 50s and continued to be implemented by  Egyptian presidents, Sadat and Mubarak. President El Sessi has also stressed the need for family planning.

In spite of such policy there was no decline in  the Egyptian birth rate.

Seventy years have elapsed since family planning programs were initiated. However, the population increased from the 30 million in the 50s to 104 million in 2018!

During my sabbatical year in Egypt in 1960, I was at the American University in Cairo and became involved in the family planning program that was sponsored by the University.

Unfortunately the results were not successful due to the following reasons:

1.     High rate of illiteracy among women, especially in rural Egypt where 60% of the population live.

2.     High rate of illiteracy among imams ( religious leaders) in villages. They oppose family planning and birth control programs, and proclain in their preaching that ‘God will provide. This occurs in spite of the fact that several leaders of Al Azhar support the program.

3.     The government subsidies program initiated by president Nasser in the early 1950, indirectly affected family planning. It had and has a negative impact on the implementation of family planning. The subsidies led the people to dependend on cheap food. Hence, why would they control the number of children. For example, a loaf of bread is sold for 5 piasters  while it costs the government 67 piasters. The subsidy for bread alone exceeds 26 billion Egyptian pounds per year.

According to the Egyptian government’s report 73 million buy subsidized bread.

 Those who are classified as poverty stricken, by the Census Department are 10.3 million people. They receive 1000 Egyptian pounds per month in addition to food subsidies.

Sixty million Egyptians could do without the bread subsidies.

Since El Sessi became president the government began to  gradually decrease petrol for cars. However, food subsidies remain as it is.

Based on my research and studies on the effect of population increase in developing nations,  I am of the opinion that all government subsidies should be terminated. Those who are poverty stricken should be the only one given stipends to help support a family of four persons, not more.

For the past seventy years the majority of the Egyptian population relied on the government for support, even people with means.

I would like to end this post by reporting a positive decision by the government .The gasoline subsidy ended in September 2019.