Egypt's High Rate of Population Growth

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President El Sessi of Egypt has recently addressed the nation regarding the national and international accomplishments achieved in Egypt during the past 18 months.

 What was of interest to me as social scientist was his emphasis on population growth? He stated, “ Egypt is facing a ticking bomb.”

He, of course, was referring to Egypt high population growth. “There are 2.5 million new babies per year”.

According to the Egyptian census record, by the end of December 2015, the total population will be 90 million people. This figure excludes the 8 to 10 million Egyptians working outside Egypt.

I would like to stress here that if the population growth continues at the same rate, Egypt would add another 30 million people during the next 10 years. Hence, by the year 2025 Egypt population will reach 130 million!

Such population growth would be a great challenge facing the Egyptian society, and would require serious consideration from the government regarding the policy made to fulfill the people’s basic needs. Such needs are: education, shelters, health care, food, and higher wages.

In order to fulfill the educational need for the 2.5 million additional people, 2000 new schools should be built.

 Even without such an increase the present schools are in pitiful conditions. More than one third of the 47,000 schools in Egypt now, are unfit to be used.

The Egyptian Minister of Education, while referring to the high density of students in classes, admitted that there is a need to create 58,000 new classrooms in order to lower the number of students by half in each class. The large number of students in each class led to a low quality of education and to the drop out of students as mentioned in the Egyptian newspaper al masrawy (November 1, 2015).

As a result of the poor quality of education in schools,  some parents are obliged to hire private teachers to help their children graduate. The Egyptian government has estimated the coast families face to pay for private lessons exceeds 16 billion Egyptian pounds per year!

It is a fact that there is a correlation between the quality of education and economic growth. From an economic and demographic theoretical model the 2.5 million increase in population per year, requires the national economic growth

to be at least 5% to 7% increase per year.

Egypt’s population growth has already reached a critical stage, 94% of its population is living on 6% of the total land. Hence, the Nile Valley and the Delta regions have the highest population density in the world.

One should also stress the fact that fresh water in Egypt has been decreasing to 600 cu.met. per person per year. Egypt has reached the poverty level in regard to water availability.

As a result of the minimal availability of water and land suitable for cultivation, Egypt is forced to import 7 million metric tons of wheat per year and the government is subsidizing the bread at a cost of 24 billion Egyptian pounds per year. Furthermore, the government subsidizes energy, transportation and other basic food items.

This policy of subsidy led to the continuing increase in the internal and external debts. The internal debts have been estimated to exceed 2.11trillion Egyptian pounds, and the foreign debts around 45 billion dollars.

The problem of population growth in Egypt has been acknowledged since the early 1950s.

Presidents Nasser, Sadat. Mubarak and now El Sessi have all advocated family planning policy.

In addition to the government’ policy, Al Azhar institution has also supported family planning programs. However, such programs were never successful.

I would like to conclude by stating that the Egyptian government should seriously review its family planning and birth control programs in order to curtail population increase.

For more information on population growth in Egypt, check my blog: http://mid-east-today.blogspot.com

The Decrease of Water Supply in the Arab World

The Arab National Environmental annual meeting was held in Beirut, Lebanon on November 4th, 2010. The preliminary report written by Dr. Muhamad al-Ashari, reflects that there are 19 countries worldwide who suffer the most from the shortage of fresh water. 13 of these are Arab countries. Also, 19 out of 22 Arab countries are classified as water poverty stricken. Nevertheless, the 13 Arab states the report listed tend to have nearly 700 cu. met. per person per year. The world rate is 6,000 cu.met. per person per year. The Arab environmental report reflects that the 13 Arab states will have a severe shortage of water by the year 2025, which is projected to be around 500 cu.met. per person per year. According to the report, the global climate changes will have a negative impact on many regions around the world. The Middle East and North African regions will be among the hardest hit areas. Scientific projection revealed that there will be less rainfall, higher temperatures, dryness and more desertification in the Arab world. Yemen is classified at the bottom of the water poverty scale.

Recently, UNESCO issued a report reflecting that nearly 7.6 million Iraqis are suffering from the shortage of fresh clean water to drink. Furthermore, 83% of its sewage water finds its way into rivers. The Iraqi invasion in 2003 destroyed most of the infrastructure, especially in urban areas. The reconstruction and repairing of the damage caused by the war is progressing at a very slow pace. The UNESCO report revealed that 24% of the Iraqi population cannot get clean fresh water to drink. Furthermore, the decrease of water flow in both the Euphrates and Tigress rivers added to the shortage of water. Also, the drought Iraq has been experiencing for the past 7 years has added to the problem. (aljazeera.net, 11/2/10).

Egypt is also classified as a water poverty stricken state, where the average water available is around 700 cu.met. per person per year. The Arab Environmental Report noted that by the year 2025, the availability of water will drop to 500 cu.met. per person per year.

The agricultural sector consumes 83% of the water in Egypt. The rest is consumed by industry and human use (www.ahram.org, 11/4/10). It is very unfortunate that the government is moving at a very slow pace reforming the irrigation system in Egypt. The Egyptian farmer is still using the same method of irrigation as his ancestors did thousands of years ago. Agricultural experts stated that the same amount used in agriculture at the present time could irrigate around 27 millions feddan if the modern irrigation system is applied. These statistics should be viewed in light of the continuous population increase, the global climate changes and temperature increases. Furthermore, Egypt imports nearly half of its wheat from abroad. As I have indicated in previous posts, none of the 22 Arab states are food sufficient. Political leaders of the Arab world are in a deep sleep and those who are planning to do something about these challenges are moving at a very slow pace.

Illiteracy Rate and Population Growth

The illiteracy rates in the Arab world fluctuate from 35% to 45% in most populated states such as Egypt, Sudan, Yemen and Morocco, where more than half the population resides. However, the illiteracy rate among females is almost double the rate for men.

Available demographic research reflects that the educational attainment of individuals are inversely related to their fertility and directly related to their knowledge and practice of family planning and birth control.

The high illiteracy rate among female and their meager participation in waged economic activities will continue to be an influential contributing factor to the high birth rate in the Arab world.

Furthermore, the unemployment rates among females in general, especially in the college graduate group, are much higher than their equals among males. For example, the female unemployment rate of high school graduates was estimated at 83% and was 25% among college graduates. (www.ahram.org, 8/9/2010).

The high unemployment rate among females is not the result of discrimination, but it is attributed to the lack of job opportunities.

In conclusion, the Arab world's demographic profile reflects a critical and important feature. First, the age composition indicates that half of the population is under the age of 18 and may be classified as a consumer population. This implies that more resources must be allocated to take care of that dependent segment of the population, hence less capital will be available for economic investment in industry and agriculture, especially in populated states. Furthermore, the consequence of the present demographic momentum, which is the delayed impact of the recent rapid trend of population growth, is a ticking bomb. Nearly half of the population is under the age of 18 and within a short period many will be ready to marry; the rate of population growth will be further accelerated. Even under the most optimistic situation, where all newlywed couples limit themselves to two children, which is roughly the replacement level, Arab population will continue to increase because the large cohorts of children born recently will mature and reproduce. It will take nearly fifty years for the population to stabilize and the Arab world will add at least fifty percent more to its size from the time when the decline to replacement level starts.

Nearly half the Arab population is poverty-stricken and more than 2/3 of the land is unfit for cultivation. Shortages of food and scarcity of water is posing the biggest challenge to the Arab world. Population increase must be challenged by remodeling social, cultural and economic habits and by a highly organized independent apparatus of social production.

Early Marriages and Reasons for Large Families

Traditional cultural views of the importance of large family size are predominant in the Arab world, especially in the rural areas of this society. Such views are motivated by economic securities and health conditions. Children can be put to work, especially in rural areas, and many parents consider themselves blessed if they have more male offspring. Large family size is considered an economic asset and a source of security to parents in old age. Recent surveys conducted in Egypt reflect the desire by married women to have more than two children per family. 40% of Egyptian families expressed that having three children is the ideal family size. Furthermore, 33.5% of married women who already have two children expressed the desire to have a third one." (www.almasry-alyoum.com, 10/24/2009).

The high infant mortality rates, especially in the rural areas of populated states, exceed 40/1000 in comparison to developed nations. For example, infant mortality in Egypt has been decreasing significantly since 1945, but it is still high by comparison to western standards. In a recent survey of birth rates in Egypt, it is reflected, "that the rural population constitutes 25% of the total population as of 2009, but contributes 41% of the total population increase."

Early marriage has been a problem in the majority of Arab states, despite the fact that some of these states' legal marriage age has been defined. In Egypt, the legal age is 18 years old for both males and females. According to the law, those officials who conduct the marriage ceremonies of young people under the legal age will be prosecuted and sent to jail for two years. In addition, they will owe a 500 Egyptian pound penalty in violation of article 722 and 126 of Egyptian law.

Despite the clarity of the law, it has been reported by the ministry of family and population planning that, "A recent survey of marriage ceremonies in Egypt reflects that 9,351 marriages were officially registered for people who were under the legal marriage age of 18 years. Nearly half of these marriages took place in the Cairo governorate." (www.ahram.org, 12/18/2009).

The tragedy of such practices reflects that the law is not applied to punish those who violate the marriage code, which makes the legal system meaningless.

Socio-Cultural Factors Contributing to High Fertility Rate

Three major socio-cultural factors influence and contribute to the high fertility rate in Egypt: traditional Islamic religious beliefs, early marriages and husbands' and wives' pragmatic reasons for large families, and the high illiteracy rate.

Islamic Religious Beliefs

Religious beliefs, as a contributing factor to population growth in general and as an obstacle to family planning and birth control in particular, should be viewed from two perspectives. First, there is the official religious interpretation, as is explained by some of the leading ulama at al-Azhar University, which is supported by the government's official stand on the matter. Second, there is a traditional religious interpretation, as it is viewed and explained by other ulama and regular religious leaders (sheikhs), and also supported by local orientation, attitudes, and popular beliefs.

Since the 1960s, in Egypt, former and present rectors of al-Azhar University, former and present ministers of Waqf and Grand Muftis, examined and discussed the question of family planning and birth control policy. Officials’ fatwas were released quoting various passages from the Koran such as:

"God intends every facility for you. He does not want to put you into difficulties." (Koran: Surah 2 - Verse 185)
"And he has imposed no difficulties upon you in religion." (Koran: Surah 22 - Verse 78).

References to such verses and others from both the Koran and the Hadith was made by the ulama to officially justify the implementation of family planning and birth control programs. On the other hand, some ulama oppose the idea of birth control practices on a communal basis. They claim that such a program is not the only solution to population problems, nor is it the only alternative to improve the standard of living. They refer to other alternatives such as industrialization, land reclamation, the elimination of greed and corruption, and a just distribution of wealth. They refer to some suras from the Koran in support of their views:

"There is no moving creature on the earth but its sustenance depends on Allah: He knoweth the time and place of its definite abode and its temporary deposit. All is in a clear record book." (Koran: Surah 11 - Verse 6).

"Kill not your children for fear of want: We shall provide sustenance for them as well as for you." (Koran: Surah 17 - Verse 31)

This type of rationale predominates in the Arab world and creates opposition to family planning and birth control. It is, therefore, not surprising to hear people saying that children are gifts from God and that it is a sin to violate God's wishes by practicing family planning and birth control.

Obstacles to Family Planning in Egypt

Previous analysis ( see July Posts) focused on population growth in the Arab world and its negative consequences on food shortages, water scarcity, education, unemployment, poverty and housing. Family planning and birth control have not been successful in the few countries that introduced them. In Tunisia, which has the lowest birth rate in the Arab world, the program was a success. Egypt, the most populated country in the Arab world, officially introduced family planning and birth control more than fifty years ago, but it was not successful. Recently, President Mubarak stressed the importance and seriousness of the issue of overpopulation to the economic development in Egypt (www.ahram.org 12/27/09). During the previous four years, birth rates increased from 1.85 million babies in 2006 to 2.2 million babies in 2009.

This increase led Prime Minister Dr. Natheef and the minister of Family and population plan to reevaluate the old strategy and develop new ones to deal with the population growth. In addition, the minster of economic development, Dr. Othman Muhammad, also stressed the danger of population growth which hinders economic development. He stressed that Egyptian families should limit their family size to two babies and Egypt should reach that goal by 2017. He noted that at the present, Egyptians live on 7% of the total land and that area should increase to 17%-20% by the year 2017. He pointed out that the population density in Cairo is 2.5 million people per square km. (www.ahram.org, 12/16/09).

The two babies per family is the new target set by Mrs. Khattab, the minister of state for family and population plan. I am not confident that even the new strategy will work in Egypt. There are several socio-cultural factors contributing to the high fertility rate, not only in Egypt but the Arab world in general. This should be part of any new strategy focusing on family planning and birth control. They are:

1) Traditional Islamic religious beliefs.
2) Early marriages and husband and wives pragmatic reasons for a large family.
3) The high illiteracy rate, especially among females.

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Population Growth and Shortages of Housing

Population growth and the lack of an economic development strategy have contributed to high unemployment rates and an increase in the number of people who are living in poverty in the Arab world. The negative impact of this is also reflected in a shortage of housing in most Arab states. The cost of buying homes or an apartment in any Arab state is beyond the financial abilities of the majority of people due to low income or unemployment. In some Arab states such as Egypt, the majority of people have been living mainly in rented apartments where the cost of the lease has been frozen for many decades. Usually, upon the death of parents, their offspring will inherit the lease. The owners of the property can't evict them, nor can they increase the rent. Therefore, property owners are subsidized dwellers. This situation is a major factor that over the years discourages investors from building residential homes to rent. There is a way to escape the law when the owner leases a furnished apartment or a house. Then the owner will set the rent scale and have the power to evict the tenant based on a written contract. There are other factors that contributed to the scarcity of housing and living accommodations, such as the influx of people from rural to urban centers in search of a job in all populated states. Most of the recent migrants from rural areas are concentrated in what is referred to in Egypt as "al-ashwaiat" or squatters settlements. These settlements have been increasing due to the increase in population. The squatters' settlements were built in violation of building codes and with no basic amenities, such as sewage systems, water or electrical power. Recently, the Egyptian government announced the allocation of 600 million Egyptian pounds in the current budget to develop "al-ashwaiat" in Egypt. Reference was made to build 212,000 housing units from 2010-2017 to replace the unhealthy type of living accommodations for millions of people. Also, to construct basic infrastructure, such as sewers, water and electrical power. The report revealed that there are 404 squatter settlements that are unsafe to live in, in various governorates in Egypt (www.ahram.org, 7/19/2010). There are other official studies that revealed that the squatter settlements in Egypt exceed 1,034 in 32 governorates.

Since the unemployment is high among people residing in squatter settlements, this situation encourages some women to work in homes as domestic servants. This situation sometimes leads to young women being raped by some male member of the household. IN some cases, due to the extreme poverty conditions, some females also resort to prostitution to support their families. This situation is now recognized as a universal phenomenon, which is also attributed to poverty (www.almasry-alyoum, 7/25/10).

Another factor that is attributed to the influx of people from rural to urban areas in the Arab world is that urban areas attract young men when they finish high school and they move to seek employment Some young men join higher academic institutions and after they graduate, the majority do not go back home.

The population increase in Cairo, as a result of natural birth and influx from rural to urban areas, led many people who were unable to pay rent to resort to the city of the dead a burial area, seeking shelter.

The Egyptian census reported that the number of people living in the city of the dead exceeds one million and a half people (www.almasry-alyoum.com, 12/10/2009). According to the World Bank, there are around 16 million people who inhabit informal and squatter settlements in Egypt. This is equal to one fifth of Egypt’s population. Furthermore, the Egyptian census reveals that four in five people inhabit tiny flats rather than houses, and there are fewer rooms than people living in such types of accommodations.

One of the shared common problems in the Arab world is the fact that electrical power shortages and water scarcity are getting to be common phenomenon. Population growth increases the demands for such basic needs. The higher the population density, the more difficulties the public will face, even in commuting from place to place through heavy traffic and overcrowded transportation systems. During my latest trip to Cairo, the metropolitan urban center resembled an urban jungle. Cairo was built to accommodate 3-4 million people, but its latest size exceeds 17 million people. Every morning, 2-3 million people enter Cairo and leave in the late afternoon. As a result of the crowded streets and neighborhoods of Cairo, a new suburban expansion began to develop during the past two decades on the outskirts of Cairo. The new communities are gated and secured for the benefits of those who live in such suburbs. I have visited some friends who are living in gated communities and they have all they need close to the area in which they live. These new communities even adopted Western names such as Dreamland, Mayfair, Beverly Hills and others. Residential flats are available only to people who have the capability to buy. The cost fluctuates from 500,000 to 2 million Egyptian pounds for a flat and as high as 5-10 million Egyptian pounds for a villa. Such accommodations are built to accommodate no more than members of the upper 15% of the population.

Keep in mind that the majority of Arab population lives in states where the GDP (PPP) is below $6,000. If this new urban trend continues, it will lead to a spatial separation between the rich and poor in urban cities in Egypt.

Population Growth and its Impact on Poverty and Unemployment

Population growth and slow economic investments contribute to the high unemployment rates and poverty in the majority of Arab states, especially the highly populated ones. Emphasis has been put on the fact that population growth is creating difficulties for economic and human development in the Arab world in general. In addition to population size, the poor quality of education is not producing a knowledgeable young people who are innovative and competitive. This situation of excessive population growth is causing poorly educated young people to run in any empty circle of poverty. An Egyptian government report reflects that "34% of young people between the ages of 20-25 years who are poverty-stricken didn't attend school at all, while less than 1% of the rich children didn't attend school. Furthermore, the report revealed that 97.9% of children of rich families graduated from high school and only 50% of the children in poor families completed high school." (www.middle-east-online.com, 4/18/2010).

One of the main reasons behind the high percentage of young people from poor families not completing their education attributed to poor economic conditions. Many young people dropout of school to work to support their families. This is not an unusual rationale. It is common knowledge that even in the United States a high percentage of the children of poor minorities never finish their educations because of their family's poverty.

There is a strong correlation between education and poverty. The lesser educational attainment, the lower the chances for employment, which contributes further to poverty. Illiteracy, unemployment and poverty is the most dangerous combination for any society. It is a destabilizing factor in any society's social order and a major contributor to the spread of crimes.

A recent UNICEF report reflects "the unemployment rates have reached 83% among young people between the ages of 15 and 29 years. This group constitutes 20% of the Egyptian population. Another U.N. report also noted that 41% of the Egyptian population is living below the poverty index level which is $2 per day per person.

Unemployment and poverty are a common phenomenon in the vast majority of Arab states. These include Yemen, Sudan, Morocco and even Jordan, where the unemployment rate fluctuates between 25% and 35%. It is not unusual that such high percentages of unemployment are even prevalent among college graduates in many Arab states. Recently, the Jordanian census issued a report on poverty, that "13.3% of the population is classified as poverty stricken. The poverty index level is 323 Jordanian Dinnar per month ($450) for a family of six. According to the report, 80% of the Jordanian Civil Service's salary does not even reach 300 Jordanian Dinnars per month. This means that this group should be classified as poverty-stricken. Furthermore, the report revealed that 48% of children are born to poor families." (www.aljazeera.net, 7/13/2010).

In Jordan, at least 35%-40% of the population is living below poverty index level, which is $2 per person per day. Unemployment among college graduates has reached a high level in many Arab states. It reached 26.8% in Morocco, 19.3% in Algeria, and 17.7% in Jordan. The unemployment among female college graduates is even higher. It is 29.5% in Jordan, 24.6% in Egypt, 27.5% in Algeria, 26.8% in Morocco and 64.5% in Saudi Arabia. (www.ahram.org, 11/14/2009).

The unemployment rates in the Arab world are among the highest in the world. Chances for improvement seem bleak. The U.N. issued a report (12/2/2009) warning that, "Arab League members are unprepared for the effect of population growth. About 60% of the Arab world's population is under 25 years old, meaning officials have to create 100 million new jobs by 2020 to avert mass unemployment among a youthful population. The increase in population size is destructive in light of the limited natural resources and the absence of a clear economic development strategy. (www.the national.ae/apps/pbes.dll/article, 12/2/2009).

Two out of five Arabs live in poverty, a trend on the increase despite vast oil wealth. Unfortunately, most of that wealth is invested outside the Arab world natural boundaries. The Arab world's political leadership has failed to see beyond their noses. Any event that will create instability in one part of the Arab world will have an impact on others. Reevaluation and the creation of a new economic strategy for the Arab world is a must in order to prevent a human explosion in that part of the world.

The Impact of Population on Education in the Arab World

Population growth and the failure of most Arab governments in allocating the needed financial resources lead to the decline of quality education. This has contributed to the high illiteracy rates in Arab society. It has been estimated that nearly 68 million people above the age of 10 years old cannot read or write. The percentage of literacy differs from state to state in the Arab world. It fluctuates from 94.5% in Kuwait, 93.1% in Qatar, 93.8% in the occupied area of Palestine, 93.1% in Jordan and 90.0% in the United Arab Emirates. Compare this to 55.6% in Morocco, 58.9% in Yemen, 60.9% in Sudan and 66.4% in Egypt. Six Arab states' literacy rates tend to fall between 70 and 80%. There are a number of reasons behind the high illiteracy rates especially in the most populated Arab states like Egypt, Morocco, Yemen and Sudan. First, not enough schools are built to accommodate the excessive population growth. The Egyptian Committee on Education, Scientific Research and Technology recommended in its report (2001) that the government should build 420,000 schools during the next 16 years (2001-2017) to meet the projected increase of students who will reach school-age. Unfortunately, since then only 18,000 schools have been constructed (alshrouk, 5/9/2010). This type of situation exists in a fairly large number of Arab states, which has lead to highly crowded classrooms as a result of such policy. In Egypt it has been estimated that the average classroom size exceeds 60 students. You can predict that in such a setting, the ability of students to learn and be motivated is very low. Furthermore, how can the average teacher perform or even pay attention to such a large number of students? Learning is a very difficult task in this situation, which contributes to the student dropout rate. Crowded classrooms are not only prevalent in public schools, but can also be seen at the upper educational levels. Hundreds and even thousands of students are packed into university lecture halls and the number of students who stand due to lack of seating runs into the hundreds. This situation will not lead to learning or critical thinking. Another factor that I have witnessed is the physical environment of schools, which tends to be depressing. The lack of maintenance and the physical deterioration of school structures that should have been demolished or renovated are not conducive to learning. He deterioration in the quality of education led parents with financial ability to hire teachers to give private lessons to their children to ensure their passage from one level to another. It has been estimated that private tutoring costs exceed 15 billion Egyptian pounds a year. Private tutoring is widespread in the Arab world. In Egypt, according to a 2002 World Bank study, “private tuition accounted for fully 1.6% of GDP and other studies suggest it devours a whopping 20% of household spending in families with school-age children. A big reason why families are willing to spend so much is that the educational system relies heavily on national exams, not only for rating students but also for placing them in the various faculties of the state universities that still account for 85% of college enrollment.” (The Economist, July 17th, 2010).

In a number of Arab states, governments encourage foreign countries or private investors to build and operate schools. As of 2009, there were more than 5,118 privately run schools in Egypt. The student fees are very high and unaffordable for more than 80% of families to enroll their children in (almasry-alyoum, May 5, 2010).

It is also of interest to see that a significant number of new, private universities began to operate in Egypt since the 1990s. The majority of students who attend such institutions are the ones who were unable to get admission to state universities. The tuition is very high but the quality of education needs to be investigated. The impression I have gotten from some academic friends is that these institutions don’t have the required standard academic credibility. They were established by investors for profit making. The quality of education, even in state universities, is being questioned due to the lack of adequate financial funding by the government.

A prominent Egyptian academician, Dr. Farouk il-Baz, recently stated at an academic conference at the American University in Cairo that there has been a lack of interest on the part of officials in Egypt in promoting learning and scientific research at both the lower and upper academic levels during the past 30-40 years. He advised the responsible people in government to make the extra effort in allocating more resources to education to compensate for the shortages of financial support during previous years, which lead to the deterioration of the quality of education. The Egyptian educational system requires renovation and new direction to improve the quality of education at all levels. Without such policy, Egypt will continue to fall behind the advanced world (www.almasry-alyoum.com, March 18, 2010).

As long as population growth continues and the majority of Arab governments lack financial support for education, general knowledge and scientific know-how will not be attained. This will lead to further deterioration of Arab Human developments.

Furthermore, higher academic institutions in the Arab world in general should not be under governmental control. Universities should be independent entities in order to promote the development of knowledge, freedom of expression and critical thinking.

A year ago, two ex-ministers of higher education stated publicly that, “the lack of independence of universities is a major contributing factor behind the deterioration of academic progress and innovation. The appointment of presidents of universities by government officials contributes to the absence of objectivity and evaluations of its faculties” (www.almasry-alyoum, 10/18/09).

Population Growth and the Shortage of Food

In the previous post, references were made to the rapid increase of population in the Arab world. The negative consequences of this growth are reflected in several important economic and social sectors of Arab society. First, the Arab world is classified as non-sufficient in food production and relies heavily on food imports to meet its basic needs. In 2009, the Arab world imported food at a cost of more than $31 billion. This cost will more than double during the next 20-25 years, especially if population growth continues at the same rate. For example, Egypt, the most populated country in the region, with 82 million people, imported 70% of its basic food needs. Many Arab states, especially the most populated ones, are not far away in food import like Egypt. Keep in mind that the world demand for food, especially in the developing nations of Africa and Asia, is also increasing and this will lead to price increases of food globally. It is interesting to note that the cost of food imported in the Arab world in 1970 was equal to $2.1 billion. During the past four decades, the cost of food imported increased by more than 15 fold.

There are several factors that contribute to the lack of increasing food productivity in the Arab world. One factor is the meager financial investment in the agricultural sectors in various Arab states. Also, the lack of knowledge and scientific research in the agricultural sector do not provide the “know how” in many Arab countries in terms of improving agricultural productivity.

Secondly, more than two-thirds of Arab land is classified as barren desert and is unsuitable for cultivation. Of the less than one-third of the land that is under cultivation, 85% depends on the annual rainfall. Most of it takes place along the seashore land in the region. Furthermore, the region has been experiencing droughts with longer duration that have lead to a lower agricultural productivity. The other 15% of the land depends on irrigation from the flowing water of the Nile and the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers. The three major rivers start beyond the national boundaries of the Arab world. It is also of interest to note that the flow of water of the three rivers is now creating tension.
An example is Egypt’s recent conflict with the Nile River basin countries because of water sharing, which has been covered in the news. Also, Syria and Iraq have been talking with Turkey regarding the slowing of water flow in both the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers due to the construction of dams in Turkey. Iraq, which has been impacted more than Syria, began to rely more on food imports, which is a reversal of its former role of being a food exporter.

The third factor that also negatively impacts agricultural cultivation in the Arab world is the global weather changes and the increase in temperature. This has lead to an increase in dryness and droughts in the Middle East and North African region. Such situations are increasing the possibility of further desertification of the region.

The fourth factor, which has also contributed to lower food productivity in the Arab world is also attributed to the scarcity of water. In previous posts we have noted that 19 of the 22 Arab states are classified as water poverty stricken. In conclusion, the population growth in the Arab world needs to be curtailed in order for future generations to survive.

Population Explosion in the Arab World

Population growth in the Arab world has been increasing steadily and creating difficulties for economic development, especially in the most populated states.

As of 2009, Arab population exceeded 350 million people. If the rate of growth continues, it is projected to reach 400 million people by the year 2015 and 650 million by the year 2030.

However, the population growth rate varies from state to state. It fluctuates from 3.69% to .98%. The United Arab Emirates have the highest growth rate (3.69%) with a population size of 4,599,000 people. They also have one of the highest GDP (PPP) in the region: $54.433 per person per year. The state of Oman ranked second with a rate of growth of 3.14% and a population size of 2,845,000 people. Its GDP is above the average of $22.816.

Jordan ranked third with a rate of growth of 3.04% and a population size of 6,316,000 people. It has a high population density and low GDP, which is $4,901 per person per year.

There are ten Arab states with a population growth rate between 2.0% and 2.97%. Egypt has a rate of growth of 2.03% and a population size of 82 million people. Its GDP, $5,138 per person per year. Yemen has a rate of growth of 2.97% and a population size of23,586,000 people. its GDP is among the very lowest at $2.335 per person per year. Eight states fall between Egypt and Yemen in terms of rates of population growth. However, their GDP varies from $2,000 – $600 per person per year for these states. The rest of the Arab states (8) have rates of population growth that vary from 1.9%-0.98%. Tunisia has the lowest population growth rate, which is 0.98% and a population size of 10,432,500 people. Its GDP is $7,520 per person per year. Tunisia is among the few states that implemented a successful family planning and birth control program several decades ago. In a previous post a reference was made to Egypt’s family planning and birth control program, which was officially implemented decades before Tunisia but so far has turned out to be a failure.

Jordan just recently adopted a family planning and birth control program with an aim of lowering its birth rate to 2.5 babies per woman by the year 2017 and 2.1 babies per woman by 2030. The present rate is 3.6 babies per woman (www.aljazeera.net, 7/17/2010). Nevertheless, the second lowest population growth rate, 1% is in Lebanon, which has a population size of 4,224,000 people and a GDP of $10,109 per person per year.

The GDP (PPP) in the Arab world reflects a big gap between the “haves” and the “have nots”. The gap fluctuates from $74,882 in Qatar with a population of 1,409,000 people to Somalia’s GDP of $600 per person per year and a population size of 10,112,453.

For comparative purposes, the U.S.A GDP is $46,400 per person per year.

The highest GDP (PPP) in the Arab world is reflected in the Arab oil producing countries of the Gulf region. This situation reflects a wide gap in terms of the distribution of wealth in the Arab world. These countries also have a low population size and population density by comparison to the rest of the states in the Arab world. The negative consequences of both the uneven distribution of wealth and the high rates of population growth have produced instabilities and a grim future outlook, especially for the younger generations. In the following post, emphasis will be placed on the impact of population growth on food production, scarcity of water resources, education and the high rates of illiteracy, unemployment and poverty, the shortage of housing, and crowded transportation systems.

*All statistics were used based on U.N. demographic data, World Bank and U.S. Central Intelligence Agency’s records.

International Population Day

The United Nations just celebrated International Population Day (7/11/2010) and issued its annual demographic report. The report revealed that Egypt ranked number ten in terms of its population growth and fourteenth in terms of population density.

Recently, the Egyptian Prime Minister Dr. Ahmad Natheef, noted that birth rates doubled in 2008 to reach two million new born. Furthermore, he said that Egypt’s population in 1979 was 40 million and in 2008 reached 80 million. He continued to elaborate that the government’s strategy is clearly to control the population growth by providing the necessary means to implement that policy and to convince parents to limit their number of children to two. However, the Minister of Health, Dr. Hatem Jebali, noted that the government has failed to reach its goal in terms of population growth.

The new government strategy of family planning and birth control is to achieve the 2.2 babies per family by the year 2017, which are 3 new born per family at the present time. (al masry al youm 9/12/10)

Family planning and birth control have a long history in Egypt. It began during the 1930s when the population size was 15,921.000 according to the 1937 census; however, more government emphasis was placed on family planning and birth control since the 1952 revolution.

During the past sixty years, every president from Nasser to Saddat and Mubarak made family planning and birth control the cornerstones of their policies. Regretfully, and despite government policy, Egypt’s population continues to grow and is expected to reach $125 million by the year 2030.

Even if the Egyptian government will succeed in limiting birth rate to two children per family, from a demographic theoretical point of view it will take nearly fifty years for Egypt population to stabilize that is where the birth rate will equal the death rate. The chances for this to happen are very slim.

Egypt: The Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Poorer



During the past four decades a new economic trend began to emerge with the privatization of the economy. This led to a new, negative economic consequence, impacting the majority of the Egyptian population. Recently the Egyptian government issued a report reflecting that the economic gap between the rich and poor continued to widen. This means that the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.



This situation negatively impacted not only the economic condition of the vast majority of the Egyptian population but also their educational, social and health conditions. For example, the report revealed that:

1) 34% of the poverty stricken between the ages of 20 and 25 did not attend school at all, compared to only 1% of the same age group of rich families.

2) 97.9% of children of well to do families finished elementary education and 91% of them graduated from high school, while only 56.7% of poor children were able to complete their elementary education and only 50% graduated from high school.



The impact of poverty on the Egyptian population was also reflected in a research project that was sponsored by UNICEF (February 2010) in the Middle East. The research focused on the impact of poverty on children and their deprivation of many basic needs. The report revealed that more than one-fourth of Egyptian children (7 million children) were deprived of many of their basic needs, which is in violation of the agreement which the Egyptian government has signed “The International Children Rights of 1989”.



The director of UNICEF in the Middle East noted that more than half of Egyptian children under the age of 18 are living on less than two dollars a day. The UNICEF report concluded by stating that the Egyptian government has failed to provide even basic needs in education, health services and sanitation (www.middle-east-online.com 4/18/2010).



Poverty, unemployment and the absence of transparency and democracy are the major factors behind the public uprising we have recently been observing in Egypt. The UNICEF report also revealed that 86% of the poverty stricken population is dissatisfied with their economic conditions and are unable to cope with the continuous increases in the cost of living. How can an average family live on £ 3,017 Egyptian pounds per year (the equivalent of nearly $512.10)?

The Arab World Food Sufficiency

During their annual meeting in 2009 in Doha, Arab leaders discussed the problem of food sufficiency in the Arab world. Arab countries are not food sufficient. They rely on imports to meet their needs. The leaders called for a meeting of experts the following year to formulate a strategy for agricultural development in Africa. They did.

Ministers of Agriculture, Arab League Representatives, and member of the African Union met in Sharm el Sheikh on February 15, 2010. The participants agreed to form a technical committee, which will develop a policy for agricultural development in Africa. They also recommended the creation of a consortium whose members will be recruited from Arab financial institutions, African development banks and some Arab investors to raise $50 billion to be invested over 15 years for the proposed project. The project will be presented to Arab leaders at their upcoming meeting in Libya in the Sprint of 2010.

The suggested project is very important and should be supported by every Arab leader for the following reasons:

First, Arab countries rely on food import to meet their basic needs. They spend around $30 billion on food import every year. This project should also be viewed in light of the population growth. Demographers anticipate that Arab population will double or exceeds 650 million people by the year 2030.

Second, the global weather change and the increasing temperature have already impacted the Arab world. There are less rainfall and longer draught period. Since only1/3 of Arab land is suitable for cultivation and depend on rainfall, the global weather change will in turn have a negative impact on food production.

It should be of interest here to stress the fact that nearly all-Arab countries are classified as water poverty-stricken. With less rainfall in the region and an increase in temperature, the possibility of more desertification is expected in the region.

The proposed $50 billion to be invested in agricultural development should be doubled. Arab oil producing countries, which have invested more than $1.3 trillion in Western economies and lost nearly $300.000 billion of their investment during the economic melt down (2008-09), could easily raise the funds for the proposed project.
Food sufficiency for the Arab world is a policy that needs to be implemented in order to maintain political and social stability in the region.
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Population Growth in Egypt

In 2009 the population in Egypt exceeded 83 million people, and it is expected to reach 100 million people by the year 2025.

In a speech delivered at the American University of Cairo (al ahram, 2/15), Prime Minister Natheef noted that the population growth in Egypt is creating major obstacles to the economic growth and human development of the country. He, furthermore, said that due to Egypt limited natural resources, the government has faced difficulties in improving the quality of higher education, scientific research and innovation.

The recent UNICEF Report reflects the negative consequences of Egypt population growth (al ahram, 2/17). It points out that 39% of Egypt population consist of children under the age of 15. Out of which 5 million children are living in unhealthy shelters lacking fresh water or sewage facilities, and 1.6 million under the age of 5 are malnourished.

Population growth in Egypt has always been a problem. At the time of the 1952 revolution, the population in Egypt was ¼ of what it is now. During the past six decades, presidents Gamal Abdel Nasser, Anwar el Sadat and Hosny Mubarak, have all stressed the dangers of such growth and the negative consequences it will inflict on the country, economically, socially and politically. For six decades the government stressed family planning and birth control without great success.

There are major factors that contribute to such growth:
- High rate of illiteracy especially among women in rural areas
- Early marriages of young girls sometimes before they reach the legal age of 17
- Ignorance of religious leaders who oppose government policy, especially in rural areas. The official stand of Al Azhar supports family planning and birth control

From a demographic point of view, if Egyptian families limit their birth to two children, it will take 50 years for Egypt to reach zero population growth. This means that the birth rates would balance the death rate.

It is primordial for the Egyptian government to seriously examine and re-assess its present defunct family planning policy

Poverty in the Arab World

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that more than one billion people, world wide, do not have enough food for their daily supply. This represent 1 out of 6 of the world population. The report also referred to poverty in the Arab world where forty million people are experiencing shortage of food on a daily basis, i.e. 13% of the Arab world total population. Furthermore, 100 million people in the Arab countries are living below the poverty line. This is equal to one third of the total population of the Arab world.

There are a number of factors that contribute to the poverty in the Arab world:

1. The uneven distribution of wealth. The income per capita reflects a wide gap between the people. It ranges from $65 per person / year to $53,000 per person /year.

2. The corruption at all levels of government institutions which was recently reported by Transparency International (Al Jazeera.net, 11/18/09).

3. The failure of a development strategy in the agricultural sector where only 30% of the agricultural land is under cultivation.

4. The large amount of the money from the sale of oil invested by Arab governments outside the Middle East and referred to as the Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) if used in the Arab world could have created jobs for the millions of young unemployed. It is, however, invested in the USA and Western Europe. More than $ 1.282 trillion were invested in US banks and of course billions of dollars were lost as a result of the 2008 economic melt down (The Middle East magazine , October/09).

5. Unemployment in the Arab world has been estimated at an average of 15% of the labor force by the Arab Employment Organization ( Al Ahram, 11/4/09). A high percentage of the unemployed are college graduates.

This high unemployment rate is definitely the major factor which might lead to political and social unrest in the Arab world, as well a factor towards the rise of international terrorism. It is certainly a highly explosive time bomb that we all should be aware of.

Decline of the Educational System in the Arab World -Egypt

Illiteracy in the Arab World exceeds one third of its population, and statistics on illiteracy vary from country to country in the region.

In a previous post (10/24/09), I have referred to the poor quality of education in the Arab world, in both higher academic institutions as well the lower levels. The Economist (10/17/09) referred to a comparative study conducted on the educational system in the Arab World. The study "Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, TIMSS," is issued every four years. The latest issue, 2007, states that "out of 48 countries tested all 12 participating Arab countries fell below the average. More disturbing, less than 1% of students aged 12-13 in ten Arab countries reached an advanced benchmark in science, compared with 32% in Singapore and 10% in the U.S., only Jordan scored above the average."

In Egypt, which used to carry the torch of education in the Arab World, the situation is deteriorating at a rapid rate.

The poor performance of students, especially in math and sciences, is attributed to several factors:

1. population growth is a big challenge to the Egyptian government. There are not enough schools build to meet the increasing number of students. Classes are over-crowded, which hinders the learning process.
2. government budget allocated for schools to meet their basic needs, is relatively small.
3. teachers are not properly trained. Hence, the quality of teaching is poor, a situation that is of concern to many parents. The number of private tutoring is on the increase, and only parents with certain means can afford to hire private tutors.
4. large number of schools are physically and structurally unfit to be used. Some structures are endangering the life of students due to their very poor conditions. Recently, it has been noticed in the Egyptian media that some schools do not have proper facilities to be used by students.

A quick survey of an Egyptian newspaper reflects the intensity of the problem. The followings are some specific points highlighting the decaying conditions of some schools:

1. In 1999 the Egyptian Governor of Buhayra ordered the partial demolition of EDCO (Secondary Agricultural School) for safety reasons. The school used to provide 25 class rooms serving 400 students. After the demolition 6 class rooms were left. Most of the classes are held in the open and chemical labs are unavailable for students. The Governor maintained that he has, since 1999, requested the Ministry of Education to rebuild what was demolished. His requests were never taken into consideration (Al Masry Al Yom,10/30/09)!
2. There are 450 students who are attending school in a barn due to the lack of facilities ( Al Masry Al Yom, 10/12/09)!
3. In Daqahliya, a condemned school liable to collapse, is attended by 770 students ( Al masry Al Yom, 10/31/09). According to this report, the Ministry of Education, for the past ten years, has turned down requests to build a new school!
4.In Al Muhandiseen, a middle class residential area in Cairo, garbage piles are blocking the entrance to an elementary school ( Al Masry Al Yom, 10/14/09)!
5. In the governorate of Ismailiyah, water services were cut off in Sarabiyum school because water bills were not paid (10/19/09)!
6. In Port-Said, 120 students are attending schools in shacks and use the street corners as their public facilities (Al Masry Al Yom 10/22/09)!
7. Garbage piles are surrounding Khalid Ibn al Walid school in Cairo, and students have to close windows to avoid foul smells( Al Masry Al Yom, 10,19/09)!

The above are only few examples listed in one newspaper in less than a month. The Ministry of Education in Egypt is failing on two accounts: to secure the safety of students in many schools, and to maintain a successful system of education. The results of bureaucratic obstacles are reflected in the high rates of students drop-out, and the rising rate of illiteracy. A large number of students graduate from schools with poor education in math, sciences and even the basic knowledge of standard Arabic.

It is a fact, that in any society the education of the younger generation is the most important investment for future development. Hence, it is of the utmost importance for the Egyptian government, specially the Ministry of Education, to seriously re-evaluate its educational programs. Will it be able to face such an important challenge?