Political Domination among Countries in the Middle East and North Africa

North Africa and the Middle East consist of four political powers.

 

1.     The Arab World let by Egypt with its population occupying North Africa and most of the Middle East.

2.     Iran with its population located along the western shores of the Red Sea.

3.     Turkey with its population located along the northern shores of the Mediterranean Sea and the Syrian Iraqi borders.

4.     Turkey with its population located along the northern shores of the Mediterranean Sea and the Syrian Iraqi borders.

5.     5. Israel located along the Mediterranean Sea. It used to be Palestine.

 

The major problems in this region is the aggressive political strategies of Israel, Iran and Turkey, to dominate parts of the Arab countries. For example:

1.     Israel was created in 1948,  on 51% of Palestinian lands, by the United Nations and with the help of the USA. Since then, Israel has annexed  27% of the West Bank. As a result Israel  controls 78% what used to be Palestine.

President Trump proposed the annexation of the land where 350 illegal settlements were built, to be part of Israel. As of June 6, 2020, this plan was not implemented. This political act was in violation of UN Resolution and of International Law.

2.     The Iranian aggression in June 25, 2020 against Iraq, led the Prime Minister of Iraq to warn  Iran against interfering in Iraq internal affairs. The Iraqi  government arrested more than fourteen  persons who were members of Khatib Hisb- Allah in Iraq. This group was created and supported, politically and financially, by Iran. It is similar to the group in Lebanon  also created by Iran and led by Hassan Nasr Allah . The Hisb Allah in Lebanon has an army consisting of 100,000 soldiers.

Recently, Hassan Nasr Allah declared publicly that his allegiance is to  Khamenei in Iran and not to Lebanon. Furthermore, Iranian troops are also in Syria in support of the Syrian regime  in their civil war.  Iran also interferes in Yemen supporting the Houthi group against the Yemini government who are supported by Saudi Arabia. The Iranian strategy is to establish “The Shi’a Crescent “ expanding from Iran to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. 

3.     Turkey is the third power that has been active in conducting war and terrorist activities  against Syria and Iraq. Moreover, Turkey has landed 25,000 mercenaries in Libya recruited from Syria in support of the illegal government of Al- Siraj who controls a small part of Western Libya. Turkish army officers were also sent to Libya. The Libyan National Assembly condemned the Turkish interference. General Haftar, head of the Libyan army ordered the invader to leave Libya. The Turkish interference in Libya was mainly to control Libyan oil located in Sirt which is under the control of general Haftar.

 

Turkey military interference in Libya led President El Sessi of Egypt to meet with Libyan government officials and with general Hafter. President El Sessi stressed the fact that Turkish interference will not only threaten the security of Libya but also that of Egypt.

The Egyptian Parliament issued a declaration stating that the city of Sirt is a “Red Line” and crossing it by the Turkish troupes and mercenaries will be a declaration of war, not only against Libya but also against Egypt. This is the “Cairo Declaration” in case Egypt security is threatened.

President Erdogan of Turkey is trying to fulfill his dream by creating a second Ottoman Empire. Erdogan has welcomed the Muslim Brothers, who have been classified as terrorists, into his country.

The three above mentioned political powers intension is to dominate and control part of the Arab World.

 

The Negative Impact of Delaying Decision to Fight Covid 19 in the USA

The pandemic Corona virus that began in Wuhan, China. During the winter of 2019 spread to the rest of the world.

The Chinese government immediately imposed strict rules and required people to stay at homes, shut down all industries, and prevented all inside and outside travels. It was a successful policy that ended  the spread of the virus.

There was 81,000 stricken people and 3,000 death cases.

The virus, however, was rapidly spread globally and specially in Europe causing a large number of people being infected by the virus which led to their death.

Italy was badly hit followed by Spain, France, Germany and the USA few months later.

 In April 12, 2020 it was reported that there was 1.7 million infected people and 108,000 deaths have occurred.

The Chinese were successful in controlling the spread of the virus, while the European and American have and are still paying a heavy price for their slow policy in dealing with this vicious Covid 19.

Two countries, Egypt and the USA are applying two different models fighting the virus.

The Egyptian government under the direction of President El Sessi applied the Chinese model to stop the spread of the Covid 19 virus. It was successful and the causalities were small compared to countries who did not apply the Chinese model.

As of April 14, 2020 the total number of deaths in Egypt was 426, and 1,939 were infected by the virus. Such number should be viewed in connection of two factors.

First, Egypt population is more than 100 million people.

Second, less than 10% of the land is livable the rest is baring desert. Hence, lead to a very high density of people living on this 10%.

The recent successful Egyptian approach to minimize the damages caused by Covid 19 was recognized by the head of the World Health Organization(WHO).

The USA has the highest number of casualties worldwide. The number of death cases was more than 21,489, as of April 12,2020, and that of those inflected 532,339. Unfortunately, the number continues to increase.

The factors that led to such horrendous result in the USA is President’s Trump policy failure during the first 70 days.  (MSNB.com)

in dealing with the spread of Covid 19.

1.     December 31, 2019, CDC learned of cluster case in Chine.

2.     January 3, 2020, China informed CDC of the outbreak. Azar then informed the White House.

3.     US spy Agencies warned the President of the danger of the virus spread.

The White House delaying action to combat the spread of the virus, led to the death of 21,480 and of 53,339 infected persons as of April 12, 2020.

Moreover, due to the failure of decent health care, more people are dying, and/or infected. There is shortage of hospital beds, medical equipment and of health care staff.

My sincere hope is that the government will succeed in taking care of the failing health system and be able to control this pandemic.

Egypt Population Growth is a Ticking Bomb

The Egyptian Census Department has recently issued a report about population. It stated that if the birth rated continues at the present rate 3%/per year, Egypt will reach 191.3 million people by 2052. The negative impact will be on the country’s economy.

 The Census Report mentions the need for the development of the educational system. For instance, the government needs to build 27,000 elementary schools, 12,000 junior high schools, and 4000 secondary schools. Accordingly, it will need 27 million staff members including new teachers. It will also have to increase the number of health care staff from the available 214,000 since 2017 to 4d29,000 in 2052.

From a demographic point of view, society requires 2.5% national economic growth for every one percent of population growth.

Hence, based on the theoretical theory, Egypt requires 7.0-7.5% national growth per year in order to maintain economic stability.

In this post I would like to stress the fact that the present Egypt’s population growth can be viewed as a ticking bomb.

The problem of the Egyptian population growth was officially recognized in the 50s by President Nasser, although the population at that time was approximately 30 million.

The policy of Family planning and Birth control programs were initiated in the 50s and continued to be implemented by  Egyptian presidents, Sadat and Mubarak. President El Sessi has also stressed the need for family planning.

In spite of such policy there was no decline in  the Egyptian birth rate.

Seventy years have elapsed since family planning programs were initiated. However, the population increased from the 30 million in the 50s to 104 million in 2018!

During my sabbatical year in Egypt in 1960, I was at the American University in Cairo and became involved in the family planning program that was sponsored by the University.

Unfortunately the results were not successful due to the following reasons:

1.     High rate of illiteracy among women, especially in rural Egypt where 60% of the population live.

2.     High rate of illiteracy among imams ( religious leaders) in villages. They oppose family planning and birth control programs, and proclain in their preaching that ‘God will provide. This occurs in spite of the fact that several leaders of Al Azhar support the program.

3.     The government subsidies program initiated by president Nasser in the early 1950, indirectly affected family planning. It had and has a negative impact on the implementation of family planning. The subsidies led the people to dependend on cheap food. Hence, why would they control the number of children. For example, a loaf of bread is sold for 5 piasters  while it costs the government 67 piasters. The subsidy for bread alone exceeds 26 billion Egyptian pounds per year.

According to the Egyptian government’s report 73 million buy subsidized bread.

 Those who are classified as poverty stricken, by the Census Department are 10.3 million people. They receive 1000 Egyptian pounds per month in addition to food subsidies.

Sixty million Egyptians could do without the bread subsidies.

Since El Sessi became president the government began to  gradually decrease petrol for cars. However, food subsidies remain as it is.

Based on my research and studies on the effect of population increase in developing nations,  I am of the opinion that all government subsidies should be terminated. Those who are poverty stricken should be the only one given stipends to help support a family of four persons, not more.

For the past seventy years the majority of the Egyptian population relied on the government for support, even people with means.

I would like to end this post by reporting a positive decision by the government .The gasoline subsidy ended in September 2019.

The USA Takes out Top Iranian General

   Hostilities between Iraq and Iran go back many years. Since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the political situation between Iraq and Iran changed significantly. This happens with the help[ of the US, the rise of ISIS as well as the rise of sectarianism. All of this led to  the development of Iranian influence over Iraq.

The Iranian strategy is the creation of the Shi’i crescent as it was stated by top Iranian political leadership.

As of 1/5/2020, the Iranian government created an open road from Iran to the Mediterranean through Iraq and Syria.

The strategy was implemented over the years by the late top general Qassim Suleiman who was assassinated by US air force in the Iraqi airport. He was flying in after visiting Lebanon and Syria.

This assassination fueled the aggression of the Iranian militia in Iraq. The later has frequently attacked the American Embassy in Baghdad. Moreover, the Iranian militia was also responsible for the killing of many of the young Iraqi protestors who were demanding an end to American and Iranian influences in Iraq.

During the previous three months the young protestors were calling for the resignation of the Iraqi government. It was estimated that more than 450 young protestors were killed as of the end of December 2019.

Most of reports accused the Iranian militia of killing and kidnapping some of the young protestors, who were demanding the departure of Iranian and American forces from Iraq. In addition, the protestors demanded the resignation of the present corrupt Iraqi government, and replacing it by a national government that is not affiliated to the present political parties