The Projected Secession of Southern Sudan

During the past few decades there has been a brewing conflict and even rebellion led by people in Southern Sudan against the Sudanese government in Khartoum. Southern Sudan has been an open arena for foreign interference especially by the Israeli secret service and by other American and European Christian Evangelical groups. All of these groups have a common objective, which is the secession of Southern Sudan from the North. These various groups have their own agenda that they want to implement.

The major secret player in Southern Sudan has been the Israeli secret service, who started their activities during the early 1950s when Ben Gurion was the Israeli prime minister. The Zionist leadership water strategy began even before the creation of the state of Israel in 1948. The Zionist strategy dates back to 1919 after the end of the World War I, when Britain issued the Belfour declaration. Zionist leaders requested at that time that the British government permit them to divert water from the Nile River to help Jewish settlers develop agriculture in Sinai. At the time, Egypt was under British colonialism. Nevertheless, the Zionist request was rejected by the British government. The Israeli Prime Minister Begin made similar requests in 1978 from President Sadat after both signed the peace treaty. Israel proposed a canal be built to divert some of the Nile water to southern Israel. President Sadat rejected the request. In the meantime, Israeli secret service activities were taking place that would lead to Southern Sudan splitting from the North. When implemented, the Israelis started influencing the flow of the Nile River, which flows to Sudan and Egypt. The scenario here is that the Nile River Basin countries will use their influence to support the Israeli strategy. Israel has been playing an active role in several of the Nile River Basin countries such as Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania and the Congo. The Israeli government provides financial and technical aid to these countries and such moves have begun to pay off for them. An Israeli Mossad colonel, M. Farji, wrote in his book, “Israel and the Movement to liberate Southern Sudan” that when Southern Sudan is liberated, its influence will penetrate into the northern part of Sudan, and it will create a wall that will impact Egypt negatively. The main idea behind the Israeli strategy is to influence the flow of the Nile River to Egypt, which will put Israel in a position to dictate its terms on Egypt regarding its intention of sharing the Nile River water with Egypt. This will happen through the support of the Nile River basin countries.

Also, other foreign powers began to play an effective role in the Nile River basin countries to secure a foothold in that region because of its rich natural resources. The U.S> government has been active in the region for a number of reasons. First, the discovery of oil in Southern Sudan where China is the leading country in oil production there. Also, Southern Sudan, which is underdeveloped, could turn out to be the breadbasket of the African continent. Third, the control of the flow of water in Southern Sudan could give the U.S> government a strategic power that could be used against Egypt whenever it needs it by controlling water flow through Sudan and into Egypt. Fourth, the U.S. and Israel’s main strategy is to prevent any attempt of Arab unity. Divide and rule has been the U.S. strategy in the Arab world. the U.S. came out strongly supporting the secession of Southern Sudan from the north, as was expressed at the U.N. as a matter of fact, Egypt recently proposed playing a constructive role between the north and south by proposing the creation of a federation instead of a secession. The U.S. immediately rejected the proposal. The U.S. foreign policy has also been influenced by various groups in the U.S. the most influential of these groups are Jewish Zionist organizations who have been advocating similar policies to those of the neo-cons, of whom many are fanatic Zionists. Israel developed the strategy and their supporters in the U.S. tend to implement it. Another group of supporters are Christian Zionist groups, who have been playing an active role in supporting Southern Sudan’s secession with the hope of turning them to Christianity.

The Zionist Christian American and European evangelical groups have been playing an active role through their missionary workers in Southern Sudan and other African states. Their role in applying pressure on the American Congress to support their strategy has been very effective. After all, American foreign policy has been influenced a great deal by lobbyists as usual.

In the past, Britain and France played an influential role in fragmenting the Arab world into many political entities. Since WWII, the U.S. replaced Britain and France’s role in Arab society. It has been playing an active role in stopping any attempts of Arab unity and the creation of the state of Israel was its first blunder.

IF the inhabitants of Southern Sudan will decide in January 2011 to split from the north, this might lead to an internal conflict among various Sudanese tribes. The election outcome January may produce positive or negative consequences.

The Decrease of Water Supply in the Arab World

The Arab National Environmental annual meeting was held in Beirut, Lebanon on November 4th, 2010. The preliminary report written by Dr. Muhamad al-Ashari, reflects that there are 19 countries worldwide who suffer the most from the shortage of fresh water. 13 of these are Arab countries. Also, 19 out of 22 Arab countries are classified as water poverty stricken. Nevertheless, the 13 Arab states the report listed tend to have nearly 700 cu. met. per person per year. The world rate is 6,000 cu.met. per person per year. The Arab environmental report reflects that the 13 Arab states will have a severe shortage of water by the year 2025, which is projected to be around 500 cu.met. per person per year. According to the report, the global climate changes will have a negative impact on many regions around the world. The Middle East and North African regions will be among the hardest hit areas. Scientific projection revealed that there will be less rainfall, higher temperatures, dryness and more desertification in the Arab world. Yemen is classified at the bottom of the water poverty scale.

Recently, UNESCO issued a report reflecting that nearly 7.6 million Iraqis are suffering from the shortage of fresh clean water to drink. Furthermore, 83% of its sewage water finds its way into rivers. The Iraqi invasion in 2003 destroyed most of the infrastructure, especially in urban areas. The reconstruction and repairing of the damage caused by the war is progressing at a very slow pace. The UNESCO report revealed that 24% of the Iraqi population cannot get clean fresh water to drink. Furthermore, the decrease of water flow in both the Euphrates and Tigress rivers added to the shortage of water. Also, the drought Iraq has been experiencing for the past 7 years has added to the problem. (aljazeera.net, 11/2/10).

Egypt is also classified as a water poverty stricken state, where the average water available is around 700 cu.met. per person per year. The Arab Environmental Report noted that by the year 2025, the availability of water will drop to 500 cu.met. per person per year.

The agricultural sector consumes 83% of the water in Egypt. The rest is consumed by industry and human use (www.ahram.org, 11/4/10). It is very unfortunate that the government is moving at a very slow pace reforming the irrigation system in Egypt. The Egyptian farmer is still using the same method of irrigation as his ancestors did thousands of years ago. Agricultural experts stated that the same amount used in agriculture at the present time could irrigate around 27 millions feddan if the modern irrigation system is applied. These statistics should be viewed in light of the continuous population increase, the global climate changes and temperature increases. Furthermore, Egypt imports nearly half of its wheat from abroad. As I have indicated in previous posts, none of the 22 Arab states are food sufficient. Political leaders of the Arab world are in a deep sleep and those who are planning to do something about these challenges are moving at a very slow pace.

Egypt and the Nile River Basin Countries

Since May 14th, 2010, when five of the Nile River basin countries signed a new agreement rejected the 1928 and1959 Nile River Water sharing treaties with Sudan and Egypt, the mass media has created an almost panicked situation. Both Sudan and Egypt have already rejected the agreement relying on international law for support of their right to sharing the Nile River. At the same time, during the visit of Kenya’s Prime Minister to Egypt (5/24/2010-5/25/2010), he tried to assure Egyptian high officials that Egypt’s Nile water share will not be threatened by the new agreement.

In previous posts, I have emphasized the fact that the Nile River is Egypt’s lifeline. The Nile River provides Egypt with 95% of its water needs. However, the Egyptian government has been negligent of its responsibility to create a new policy of water consumption for the country as a whole.

Recent reports revealed that 57% of the Nile River water is wasted in many ways. For example, agriculture is consuming 80% of the Nile River water. The traditional irrigation methods that have been used by the Egyptian farmers for thousands of years, must stop and be replaced by new methods of irrigation. Also crops that require more water should be replaced by another crop that requires less water. Second, water recycling must be utilized all over Egypt as it will provide an additional 5 billion cu. met. of water that the country needs.

Third, the Nile River and canals in Egypt have been misused by the public. I have seen people throwing their garbage in the water due to the lack of garbage collection systems that is due to government failure to provide such services.

Fourth, I would venture to say that the Egyptian public in general is under the illusion that there is plenty of water for their ruse. Water use is abused at homes and outside where car washing by doorkeepers is common in many neighborhoods. In many cases the water hose is kept on and the water is kept running because they are not paying for water use.

Fifth, it has been reported that the underground water network is leaking and plenty of water is wasted. Some of these water pipes need to be replaced and this is the government’s’ responsibility.

Sixth, it seems to me that the best way to create public awareness about water use is to increase the prices of water use.

There are other ways and means of conserving water in Egypt. A recent report was published (www.almasry-alyoum 5/24/10), “The second part of the national report about the global weather changes and their impact on the flow of the Nile River Water” that reveals that the Nile River water flow will decrease by 50% by the year 2020 and 90% by the year 2095. The report was prepared by 35 Egyptian scientists in various areas of specialty who developed 10 scenarios about what will happen to the Nile River flow and rainfall as a result of global weather changes. The report should be read by those who can read and understand the critical water situation in the near future on Egyptian society.

Furthermore, the Nile River basin countries are among the most impoverished in Africa. Some of the projects that are being built, such as dams to generate electrical power in Ethiopia, are justified. In addition, agricultural development projects to feed their increasing population is legitimate. Egypt should extend its technical help to help the Nile River basin countries to progress. Such policy is the best approach to assure Egypt its fair share of the Nile River water.

Water - Egypt Most Urgent Challenge

During the past few years, Egypt has been meeting with the Nile River Basin countries, which include the Congo, Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, and Eritrea. Sudan and Egypt are classified as the countries at the end of the Nile River flow.

In a previous post, a reference was made to the fact that Egypt and the Nile River basin countries signed a treaty in 1929 when Britain was the colonialist power in the region. The agreement allocated 55 billion cu. met. of water per year to Egypt. The agreement stated that no project that can threaten Egypt’s water share should be undertaken by any member. The Nile River basin countries want a reevaluation of the 1929 agreement in order to develop their own agricultural and economic projects. A number of foreign countries are already involved in various projects of the Nile River basin countries. These include Israel, the U.S., China, Egypt and other states.

At a recent conference that was held in Sharm el-Sheikh (almasry-alyoum.com April 14, 2010), no agreement of understanding between Egypt and the Nile River basin countries was achieved. The meeting ended without any consensus of water sharing.

Some water experts suggested putting aside the 1929 agreement and instead creating an International Legal Commission to recommend how the Nile River water should be allocated. The committee would be the sole authority to come up with the rules of regulation in order to avoid conflict among the countries that are sharing the Nile River water. The focus of such a proposal is to accommodate economic development and cooperation among all the countries that rely on the Nile River for their survival. Egypt in particular is at the end line of the flow of the Nile River and its water is a matter of life and death for the country.

Furthermore, Egypt should start developing a new water strategy in light of its population growth and the increasing demands for water. It should also be taken into consideration that Egypt’s share of the Nile River water might decrease due to future increase of water consumption by the Nile River basin countries.

The Egyptian government should re-examine its water management policy and develop a new strategy that will meet the new challenges. For example, the agriculture sector consumes nearly 80% of the water supply in Egypt. A new technology is required that should be implemented to save water, but at the same time produces crops needed to feed Egypt’s increasing population.

Furthermore, a nationwide program to raise awareness of Egypt’s water poverty is necessary to enlighten the public, especially in urban areas where people are under the illusion that there is plenty of water available. Conservation should be a must policy and an increase in the water consumption bills must be adopted.

I am of the opinion that the Nile River basin countries will put their interests ahead of Egypt’s interests in term of their economic development. These countries are encouraged by foreign governments, in particular Israel’s, to proceed with their development. Again, the Egyptian government should be prepared to face the forthcoming challenges.

The Arab World – Water Scarcity and Sea Water Flooding

Recently, a conference was held at the Alexandria Library (April 1-2, 2010), which was sponsored by the Egyptian government and the U.N. The conference objective was to discuss the consequences of the global weather changes on the Arab world. Scientists and water management experts discussed three topics. The first issue is the increasing global temperature and its impact on the climate in the Middle East region. Experts predicted less rainfall and an increase in dryness that will enhance more desertification. Keep in mind that more than two-thirds of the land in the Arab world is already classified as desert. The decrease in rainfall will also lead to less renewable fresh water and this will impact the underground water reserve. Arab states are already water poverty stricken.

The participant also used a report that was published by “IPEC” which was the result of extensive research studies sponsored by international governmental organizations. The research focused on the consequences of global weather and environmental changes on Arab states economic developments. The report was published in 2009 and reflected that the Arab countries will be most affected by environmental changes. Most important, the increase in temperature will cause a decrease in rainfall that will enhance dryness and desertification. The decrease in renewable water resources will reach dangerous levels by the year 2025. The report noted that the Fertile Crescent, which includes Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine will lose its land fertility as a result of droughts. The second issue the water management experts noted is that the population of the Arab world constitutes 5% of the world population. However, they have only 1% of the global fresh water resources.

They called on authorities to impose strict water rules to save scarce water resources. The traditional water consumption habits must change.

Furthermore, the experts recommended that the agriculture sector, which consumes around 80% of the water, should change its irrigation methods to save water. New technology is available and it should be adopted to ensure the production of food in the Arab world. In Egypt, 40% of the labor force is engaged in agricultural activities and contributes 18% to its national economy.

Some of the experts suggested an increase in the price of water use, but no consensus was reached. The third issue the participants discussed is the impact of seawater flooding seashores of Arab lands. The scientific report revealed that the sea water level will increase by an estimated one meter. This will lead to the flooding of more than 41,500 square kilometers of seashore lands. The countries that will be affected most are Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Kuwait, Bahrain and the Emirates.

The report noted that 12% of Egyptian agricultural lands (Delta region) will be covered by seawater and more than six million people will be forced to flee the region.

Finally, the experts recommend that Arab governments should start preparing for such future possibilities (almasry-alyoum.com, April 1-2, 2010).

The information discussed at the conference should be publicized to Arab populations, especially in countries that will be affected by the global weather changes. The Egyptian government, which has already acquired the experience of building underground walls between Gaza and Egypt, should apply that knowledge to build above ground walls to prevent the seawater flooding in the Delta region.

Water Scarcity in the Gulf Region

According to the 2009 Arab Human Development Report by the U.N. Development Programme (UNDP), all of the Gulf states are water poverty stricken. Recently, the 9th Gulf states regional conference on water was held in Muscat, Oman (3/22/2010). The main objective of the meeting was to discuss water shortages and the development of a strategy for a better management of water resources. In light of population growth, increasing tourism and the economic development of industries and agriculture, a new strategy is required. More than 400 experts attended the conference in addition to public officials from the Gulf states.

Some experts emphasized that water consumption per individual in the Gulf states is among the highest in the world and that a better management system is needed badly. Furthermore, a complete system of sanitation and sewage networks should be constructed. Water recycling should be a priority for at least agricultural use. At the present, more than 30 stations of water desalination are in the Gulf region producing fresh water at a cost of one dollar per sq. met. Nearly 70% of water desalination projects are located in the Gulf region. Some experts promote passive energy sources such as the sun as a source of energy to cut the high cost of water desalination.

In addition, experts urged Gulf state governments to establish a joint water network connecting Gulf states in light of the growing population and the development of industries, agriculture and tourism.

The Gulf region rainfall is meager and it is among the driest areas in the world. Nearly 95% of the land is classified as desert.

The Arab World Food Sufficiency

During their annual meeting in 2009 in Doha, Arab leaders discussed the problem of food sufficiency in the Arab world. Arab countries are not food sufficient. They rely on imports to meet their needs. The leaders called for a meeting of experts the following year to formulate a strategy for agricultural development in Africa. They did.

Ministers of Agriculture, Arab League Representatives, and member of the African Union met in Sharm el Sheikh on February 15, 2010. The participants agreed to form a technical committee, which will develop a policy for agricultural development in Africa. They also recommended the creation of a consortium whose members will be recruited from Arab financial institutions, African development banks and some Arab investors to raise $50 billion to be invested over 15 years for the proposed project. The project will be presented to Arab leaders at their upcoming meeting in Libya in the Sprint of 2010.

The suggested project is very important and should be supported by every Arab leader for the following reasons:

First, Arab countries rely on food import to meet their basic needs. They spend around $30 billion on food import every year. This project should also be viewed in light of the population growth. Demographers anticipate that Arab population will double or exceeds 650 million people by the year 2030.

Second, the global weather change and the increasing temperature have already impacted the Arab world. There are less rainfall and longer draught period. Since only1/3 of Arab land is suitable for cultivation and depend on rainfall, the global weather change will in turn have a negative impact on food production.

It should be of interest here to stress the fact that nearly all-Arab countries are classified as water poverty-stricken. With less rainfall in the region and an increase in temperature, the possibility of more desertification is expected in the region.

The proposed $50 billion to be invested in agricultural development should be doubled. Arab oil producing countries, which have invested more than $1.3 trillion in Western economies and lost nearly $300.000 billion of their investment during the economic melt down (2008-09), could easily raise the funds for the proposed project.
Food sufficiency for the Arab world is a policy that needs to be implemented in order to maintain political and social stability in the region.
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Poverty in the Arab World

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that more than one billion people, world wide, do not have enough food for their daily supply. This represent 1 out of 6 of the world population. The report also referred to poverty in the Arab world where forty million people are experiencing shortage of food on a daily basis, i.e. 13% of the Arab world total population. Furthermore, 100 million people in the Arab countries are living below the poverty line. This is equal to one third of the total population of the Arab world.

There are a number of factors that contribute to the poverty in the Arab world:

1. The uneven distribution of wealth. The income per capita reflects a wide gap between the people. It ranges from $65 per person / year to $53,000 per person /year.

2. The corruption at all levels of government institutions which was recently reported by Transparency International (Al Jazeera.net, 11/18/09).

3. The failure of a development strategy in the agricultural sector where only 30% of the agricultural land is under cultivation.

4. The large amount of the money from the sale of oil invested by Arab governments outside the Middle East and referred to as the Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) if used in the Arab world could have created jobs for the millions of young unemployed. It is, however, invested in the USA and Western Europe. More than $ 1.282 trillion were invested in US banks and of course billions of dollars were lost as a result of the 2008 economic melt down (The Middle East magazine , October/09).

5. Unemployment in the Arab world has been estimated at an average of 15% of the labor force by the Arab Employment Organization ( Al Ahram, 11/4/09). A high percentage of the unemployed are college graduates.

This high unemployment rate is definitely the major factor which might lead to political and social unrest in the Arab world, as well a factor towards the rise of international terrorism. It is certainly a highly explosive time bomb that we all should be aware of.

Egypt's relation with the Nile River Basin Countries

In a previous post (8/28/09), I referred to the conflict between Egypt and the countries of the Nile River Basin, who want to re-consider the 1929 agreement with Egypt whereby Egypt's share of the Nile River water was stated as 84 billion cu.met per year.This treaty stipulates that the Nile River Basin countries cannot develop projects that might affect Egypt's share.

Lately, Israel has been playing an influential role in these countries especially in the area of agricultural development, water projects and other economic related activities. The Israeli's role is viewed by Egypt as a threat to its national security.

I am of the opinion that the cause behind this rapprochement between Israel and the Nile River Basin countries, is to create pressure on Egypt to allow Israel to obtain a share of the Nile River water.

The late Prime Minister of Israel, M.Begin, had once asked the late President Sadat to divert some of the Nile River to Israel. President Sadat turned the request down.

I was watching a program ('Halit Hiwar' or 'case of discussion') on the Egyptian channel Al Masriyyah (10/17/09). The discussion that evening focused on Israeli's role in the countries of the Nile River Basin, and its cooperation with these countries in agricultural developments, and water projects. The discussion was led by nine guest speakers, specialists in various fields. They were all aware of Israel's active role in the Nile River Basin countries, and the significant absence role of Egypt in the same countries.

The discussants suggested that Egypt ought to help the governments of the Nile River Basin countries to start constructive projects such as: agricultural, infrastructural (building of roads and bridges), and medical (establishing clinics to treat the natives freely).

However, I was disappointed that the discussants did not refer to education. It would be of great help if Egypt could offer scholarships to students in the countries of the Nile River Basin. These scholarships will help in the education of young students who might become the future leaders in these countries. Such programs will in the future strengthen relations between Egypt and the receiving countries.

The Egyptian newspaper, Al Ahram, reported (10/19/09) that a large Egyptian government delegation led by the Minister of International Co-operation(F. Abu Al Naga) accompanied by engineers in various fields, were visiting Ethiopia with the hope of starting joint projects in the fields of agriculture, irrigation and electrical power. Such cooperation will be of benefit to both countries, and will ultimately protect Egypt's share of the Nile River water.

More on the Water Crisis

Juliette Jowit (The Guardian 11/2/08) stated that "population keeps growing and getting richer, and global warming changes the climate. Experts are warning that unless something is done, billions more will suffer lack of water - precipitating hunger, disease, migration and ultimate conflict."

She further points out that the Stockholm International Water Institute "talks about an 'acute and devastating humanitarian crisis'; which might result in water wars as Banki Moon, UN Secretary General has stated.

Africa and the Middle East have the highest rate of population growth. Both regions are experiencing water shortage due to climatic changes and meager rainfall. The declining of rainfall impacted agricultural productivity which led to starvation in certain areas of Africa. Millions of children died prematurely as a result of malnutrition.

The drought in certain parts of Africa resulted in the migration of people in search of water and graze lands for animals. This is the major cause for the Darfur conflict.

Other factors contributing to the water crisis, is the absence of water management programs that deals with water needs and its distribution, and the lack of experts and funds needed for the success of such programs.

Jowit further says that the "UN maintains individuals need five litres of water a day simply to survive in a moderate climate, and at least 50 litres a day for drinking and cooking, bathing and sanitation. Industry account for about double the average domestic use - but agriculture needs much more - in fact, 90% of all water use by humans."

Marq de Villiers says Jowit stated that "there's certainly enough water for every person on the planet, but too often it's in the wrong places at the wrong times in the wrong amounts."

It is ironic that while writing this post stressing the scarcity of water where it is mostly needed, Africa and the Middle East, the weather channel on TV reported heavy rainfall causing serious floods in the Philippines, South East Asia, China and India!

Indeed, future war will be 'water wars' as Banki Moon stated.

Water Shortage in Jordan

In a previous post (9/13/09) I have referred to Jordan as among the five most impoverished country in the world in water supply. Nearly 90% of Jordan is barren desert.

Jordan depends on rainfall for its drinking water and agriculture irrigation. It has always been very efficient in capturing 90% of its rain. However, recently rainfalls have diminished due to climatic changes which led to longer periods of drought.

In addition to natural causes, Israel, in violation of international law, has diverted most of the Jordan River water to southern Israel. This has increased the depletion of the Jordan River. Officials in Jordan estimated that the flow of water into the Dead Sea from the Jordan River is 10% of what it used to be 50 years ago. It has been estimated that by 2050 the Dead Sea would have dried out.

Furthermore, in order to make up for the decreasing water flow into the Jordan River, Israel diverted water from a sewage plant into the River. Hence, the meager flow of water into the River is highly polluted (BBC News, 9/26/2009).

Recently, due to the decreasing availability of fresh water, the Jordanian government established a Water Management System whereby certain sections of the capital Amman will be receiving water during specific days: 1 or 2 days per week instead of 2 to 3 days per week.

Four years ago (2005) Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian Authority have agreed, in principle, to build a canal connecting the Red Sea with the Dead Sea at an estimated cost of $11 billion. The purpose behind the proposed project is to provide a new source of drinking water as well as a new flow of water into the Dead Sea. This project is still not implemented due to the lack of financial resources.

The Al Jazeera (9/27/09) reported that the Jordanian government officially announced that it will build part of the above mentioned canal connecting the Red Sea to the Dead Sea. It will start in 2010 and be completed in 2014. The initial cost for such construction is estimated at $2 billion.

The canal will pump 310 million cubic met. per year from the Red Sea, of which 240 million cubic met. will be desalinated in Aqaba. From the 240, 120 million cubic will be used for drinking water, and 130 million cubic met. will flow into the Dead Sea.

Presently, the population of Jordan exceeds 6 million, and it is increasing rapidly at the rate of 3.5% per year. Hence, the construction of such canal is extremely important to Jordan in order to meet the pressing need for drinking water.

World Water Development Report

The depletion of fresh water resources is attributed to several factors:



1. climate change

2. population growth

3. expansion of industrilization and urbanization

4. expansion of agriculture to meet demands for food production



The World Water Development Report stated that within the next 30 to 50 years there will be "substantial population displacements" due to the shortage of water especially in the Middle East, such as in Israel, the West Bank and Jordan.