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The Middle East has traditionally been important for the world economy. The Middle East situation today has an impact on all aspects of life in America and much of the world.

Only by understanding the motivations of the various factions in the Middle East can we hope to understand how to promote peace and national security for Middle Eastern nations, Europe, and the United States.

Jun 23, 2012

Revolution or Military coup

In a previous post (October 30, 2011), I pointed out that the Egyptian revolution of January 25th was stalling and that it might turn into a military coup. Such an assessment has now turned into a reality. The Egyptian military, which has been in power for more than sixty years, is not ready to give it up.

The revolution came as a blessing for the Egyptian military generals, who were known to be unsupportive of Jamal Mubarak inheriting his father’s position. That fact and others encouraged the Egyptian military not to turn their guns against the protestors.

After the collapse of the Mubarak government on February 11, 2011, the Egyptian Higher Military Council began to prepare for a counter-revolution to stop any further revolutionary demands for political, economic, and social reforms.

The young Egyptian protestors were chanting, “Bread, freedom, and social justice.” The army generals who control between 20%-30% of the Egyptian economy anticipated a threat to their interests and the special privileges they have been enjoying for many decades without accountability.

The military general turned to the Muslim Brotherhood, who is the oldest and most organized political group, for an undeclared partnership for political support. Both groups have their own hidden agenda to implement, regardless of their impact on the others, but their               priority supersedes any other issue, except stopping any further demands by the revolutionary forces. For that and other reasons, both the Egyptian military and the Muslim Brotherhood joined forces and began to call on the protestors to stop their protests in Tahrir Square in order for the revolution to succeed and the economic wheel to start turning.

The Muslim Brotherhood did not condemn the killings of the young protestors in front of the Myspairo Square, the Mohamed Mahmoud Street, the Ministry of Interior, and in front of the prime minster’s headquarters. Many young Egyptian protestors were killed during the peaceful protests at these sites. The Military council always blamed a third unknown party for the killings.

In the meantime, the Muslim Brotherhood turned its face to the other side and was preparing to implement their hidden agenda. They were under the illusion that they have a religious-political mandate to lead the nation despite the fact that they were not the ones who began the revolution. They succeeded in pressuring the military general to postpone drafting a new constitution, electing a new parliament instead. They have succeeded in doing that. Second, the Muslim Brotherhood have also misled the Egyptian public on several occasions prior to the election, and they announced that their candidates would run in only 30% of the districts. They then said they would run in 50% of the districts and prior to the election they ran in all the districts. The Muslim Brotherhood, through their political party “The Freedom and Justice Party” ended up winning 46% of the pertinent seats, and the Salafi Muslims won 24% of the seats. Both political Islamic groups ended up controlling nearly 2/3 of the parliament seats.

The second blunder that the Muslim Brotherhood committed is their demand to control 50-60% of the committee designated to draft the new constitution, which was supposed to consist of 100 members. Their aim was to create a new constitution that meets their political objectives, but it did not materialize. The third blunder that the Muslim Brotherhood committed was also their first announcement that they would not have a candidate run for the position of president. They then ended up having a candidate run – Dr. M. Mursi – run. He received nearly 5.5 million votes and was the leading candidate. Dr. M. Shafik came in second out of the 13 candidates. Unfortunately, neither candidate was the desired one by the majority of the Egyptian population for the following reason:

First, Mr. Mursi represents the Muslim Brotherhood, which has lost credibility with many Egyptians for not being honest in terms of their public policy. Their reputations during more than one year in parliament are negative. No major accomplishment was made by them, despite the fact that they controlled parliament. For example, instead of focusing on major problems that the nation faces, such as the high unemployment and poverty rates, low wages, corruption, the continuous increases in food prices, and the shortages of gas for cooking and petrol for cars, some of their members are concerned with other insignificant issues such as decriminalizing female genital mutilation, stopping the production and consumption of liquor, and prohibiting tourists from wearing bikinis at Egyptian beaches. Such behavior on the part of the political Islamist parties caused many Egyptians to discredit them, politically speaking.

Finally, the blunders committed in parliament led the Egyptian Military Council to turn against them. The military council gave the Muslim Brotherhood enough rope to hang themselves with during the right moment. During the election of the members of parliament, members of the military council were aware that the Muslim Brotherhood violated the election law. However, they waited for more than a year to raise the issue.

The Egyptian Higher Constitutional Court responded to the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood violated the election law for parliament. The Court issued its verdict by dissolving the parliament.

The military council was waiting for such a decision and issued its order by implementing the court decision and closed the door of parliament.

Furthermore, two days before declaring the winner in the second round of elections for the presidential position, the military council issued a new binding rule to limit the authority of the newly elected president before the official announcement of who will be the winner. They announced their decision to create a new committee that will draft a new constitution in no more than three months. The military council assumed the legislative power as a result of the constitutional court verdict of dissolving parliament. The media announced that Dr. Mursi is the winner with 51.5% of all the votes cast after completing the counting. The Muslim Brotherhood, who has been waiting for more than eighty years, is ready to take over the government. Dr. Mursi gave a short speech thanking the Egyptian people for their support. He also stated that he would be the president for all Egyptians and that they will all be treated equally, regardless of their religious affiliation. He will be president of a civil, free, and democratic government.

Dr. Mursi should be given the chance to run the new government and every Egyptian should support him. He will implement what he said in his speech.

Finally I will say that the Egyptian military strategy was implemented with success. The revolution’s meager success so far is very significant for the following reasons. First, it removed the blanket of fear from authoritarian regimes so that political dictators do not emerge again. Second, Egyptians have experienced democracy and free elections for the first time in more than sixty years. Third, people began to experience the feeling of being free and expressing themselves without being prosecuted.

There are still more reforms that need to be implemented. Let us hope it will be accomplished by the incoming new government. The projection of Dr. Mursi as the winner was made before the official result of voting was made.

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