President Morsi Facing Challenges

The turns of political events during the past few days in Egypt reflect very significant and important changes.
           First, President Morsi’s new strategy, by sending new troops and military equipment to Sinia as a result of the terrorist attack against an Egyptian Military post which led to the killing of 16 soldiers, was an important and strategic decision. The president promised to  clear Sinia from the terrorists. He visited the area twice during the past few days and met with the people and Egyptian troops to enhance their moral. President Morsi’s action enhanced his image especially among his opponents.
           Second, President Morsi’s political action to dismiss nearly a dozen of his army’s top generals and replace them with new ones was important. The military positions, such as the Secretary of Defense, the Military Chief of Staff, and others positions being filled by new, young generals reflects an end to the remnants of the old, previous regime.
           Third, the military changes that took place also reflect very important strategies. The military changes mark the end of the Egyptian Military influence over the civilian political leadership which has been going on for more than six decades. This signifies the beginning of a new and real democracy in Egypt.
           Fourth, at the present time, President Morsi is in control of the executive power as well as the legislative one until a new election of parliament takes place after the writing of a new constitution.
The new political accomplishment of President Morsi was welcomed by brood segments of the political and civil groups. The removal of the military influence from the political stage was a major demand by the revolutionary forces since the fall of Mubarak on February 11, 2011.
However there are still many challenges facing the president, such as:

1.      The shortage of electrical power

2.      The absence of security and the spread of violent acts all over Egypt

3.      The shortage of clean drinking water

4.      The continuous increases in the daily cost of living

5.      The problems of poverty and unemployment

6.      The problems of poor health care services and frequent attacks on physicians and hospitals

7.      the problems of poor education and the illiteracy rate especially among the younger generations (15-30 years old), is estimated at 17 million illiterate

These are among the most pressing problems President Morsi faces. He is in a race with time and needs the support of all the Egyptians in order to start real political, economic, and social reforms. However, in order to obtain a strong public support there should be freedom of expression which is one of the most important feature of democracy.

The Revolution Stalled

The Muslim Brotherhood, which was established in Egypt in 1928, played a significant political role, especially prior to the 1952 revolution. Since that date, the Muslim Brotherhood party has been prevented from participating in the political arena of Egypt, which began during the J. Abed el Nasser government.

However, they stayed in contact with the Egyptian grass roots, providing a wide range of educational, healthcare services and economic aid to the poverty-stricken segment of the population.

Since the January 25^th revolution, the Muslim Brotherhood has committed many political blunders by trying to take over nearly all governmental authorities, despite the fact that they were not the ones who initiated the revolution.

I would like to illustrate and focus on some points that reflect the mistakes of their negative political strategy.

First, the Muslim Brotherhood joined the young people’s revolution on the 5^th day after it started. This reflects that when they were assured of its success, they joined the protestors.

Second, after they joined, they began to demand the fall of Mubarak’s regime like the other groups, but began to assume the major role in al-Tahrir square.

They tried to send a message that they are the major political force that led to the fall of Mubarak’s regime on February 11, 2011.

Third, the Egyptian Higher Military Council played a constructive role by not turning their guns against the protesters. The military was eager to remove Mubarak in order to prevent his son Jamal from inheriting his position. The young protestors did them a big favor. Furthermore, the military also has their own secret political agenda to maintain their political influence that they established during the previous six decades.

Fourth, the Muslim Brotherhood is the largest and best-organized political group in Egypt. The military council was aware of it and began to plan with the Muslim Brotherhood leaders to stop the revolution.

Fifth, the political greed of the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood led them to disregard the young Egyptians who were the vanguards of the revolution. They have joined the military council by ignoring the revolutionary demands for further reforms. The negative reactions of both the military and the Brotherhood were reflected in the harsh treatment the protestors experienced at the following sites: Masparo Square, Mohamed Mahmoud Street, the Ministry of Interior, and the headquarters of the prime minister. In all of these clashes, many young protestors were killed by the security forces.

Sixth, the Muslim Brotherhood insisted on having the parliament election before drafting the new constitution. They predicted that they will have a large share of the parliament seats and that it would put them in a better position to draft the new constitution according to their political-religious philosophy. As a result of the election, they were demanding the appointment of 50-60% of the members of the committee in charge of writing the constitution, which is supposed be written by 100 members. Their demands contributed to the delay of the drafting of the constitution.

Seventh, the blunder committed by the newly elected president Morsi, who issued a decree to the members of the dissolved parliament to return and conduct their duties as usual. President Morsi’s decision was a challenge to the Egyptian Constitutional Higher Court who issued its verdict that the parliamentary election was conducted in violation of the election law.

Even when the members of parliament met, they sent a request to the appeals court to revoke the decision of the Constitutional Higher Court authority regarding dissolving the parliament. The Court of Appeals rejected that request by saying it is not pertinent to their jurisdiction.

Dr. Morsi’s decision was inspired, in my view, to test the authority of the Egyptian Higher Military Council’s authority. However, the impact of his decision led to more resentment on the part of the general public, who began to lose more confidence in the Muslim Brotherhood’s sincerity and political ability to run the country.

President Morsi’s decision to reinstate the parliament was not only a challenge to the legality of Egyptian Constitutional Higher Court, but an insult to the judicial system and an act of defiance of Egyptian law. President Morsi violated the oath of office according to the Egyptian constitution.

Many of Egypt’s constitutional experts have opposed President Morsi’s decision, and much of Egypt’s mass media has allied itself with the judicial system and the Egyptian military. President Morsi should resent that order and should start focusing on many of the problems facing Egypt, especially the deteriorating economy that is at the edge of collapsing.

President Morsi should detach himself from the Muslim Brotherhood and start acting as the political leader of all Egyptians. After all, he only received less than one third of the eligible Egyptian votes. I wish President Morsi the success he needs badly.

The First Democratic Libyan Election

On July 7^th, 2012, the Libyan population experienced their first free and democratic election in more than five decades. There are 2.8 million eligible voters in Libya who were free to elect 200 members of a council whose responsibility will be to draft a new constitution, elect a new prime minister and government and set a time for the election of a new parliament. The transitional government allocated 100 members to be elected from the western region, 60 members from the eastern region and 40 members from the southern region.

The allocation of such members was not accepted, especially in the eastern region of ben Gazi, which was the center of the revolution that led to the collapse of the previous dictator M. Gadhafi. The people in that region resented the decision of the transitional government because it gave them less numbers than those in the western region. For that reason, more than 100 voting precincts were destroyed out of 1554 precincts nationwide.

The higher election committee pointed out that due to the lack of poor security in the country, they have placed 13,000 soldiers in charge of protecting voting places nationwide.

It was reported on July 8, 2012 that 60% of the illegible voters have exercised their rights. According to the projected result of the election, the United National political parties under the leadership of Mahmoud Jibreel emerged as the major winner against the Muslim Brothers.

The result of the first Libyan election reflects a very important political trend which is the opposite of the trend that took place in Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco, where political Islamic parties emerged as the winners in the recent political elections.

During the last four decades of Gadhafi’s authoritarian regime, political parties were not allowed to be formed. 

The Syrian Tragedy

More than 16 months have passed since the Spring Revolution, which was sparked by a young teenager in Dere3a-Syria, which led to the Syrian uprising. Since then, more than 16,000 people have been killed by the brutality of the Syrian regime under the leadership of Bashar al Assad.

The Syrian uprising has been politicized internationally and attempts by the U.N. have been initiated to stop the bloodbath taking place on a daily basis.

So far, these attempts, sponsored by the U.N. and supported by the leading world superpowers and the Arab League, have failed to produce any positive results.

The Syrian president has opted for the military approach over the political one, which called for his resignation and the establishment of a transitional government until a free election takes place.

Nevertheless, all such efforts led nowhere. Recently the Arab League sponsored a meeting that took place in Cairo, where nearly 250 members from various Syrian opposition groups attended to establish a united front to meet the challenges of the brutality of the al Assad regime.

The meeting was attended by foreign ministers of Turkey, Iraq, Qatar and Egypt. All spoke and urged the leadership of the Syrian opposition groups to created a united national front that would strengthen the struggle of those fighting the Syrian army inside Syria. Even the new president of Egypt, Dr. M. Morsi, sent a message that was read by Egyptian foreign ministers, urging the group to forget their differences and unite in support of their cause.

The major friction between the various groups is attributed to one major policy. One group has been calling for a foreign intervention to stop the bloodbath, which, in addition to killing 16,000 Syrians, has created over 150,000 refugees in neighboring states, such as Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon.

The second major group opposes foreign intervention and is calling for a political solution to the problem in the interest of the country as a whole. Their rationale is influenced by the fact that the regime is supported by two major powers, Russia and China, in addition to Iran, who has been sending weapons to the Syrian government and preventing the U.N. from adopting sanctions against Syria. For that reason and others, the military approach will take a long time and at the end will be disastrous for Syria.

It was reported on July 3^rd that 215 members were among the participating groups that have signed an agreement supporting the political approach as the best way to face the challenge. The adopted document called for the removal of Bashar al Assad’s regime and the punishment of those responsible for the killings of many civilians in very inhumane and brutal ways.

In the meantime, the Free Syrian Army, whose number has been estimated to be between 30,000 and 70,000, opposed the Arab League’s meeting and are fighting the Syrian army in various areas of Syria. The Free Syrian Army consists of soldiers who have deserted the Syrian army in protest of the brutality against unarmed civilian protestors.

The Free Syrian Army is getting armaments from the Arab Gulf states, but they are not strong enough to meet the threat of army tanks and airplanes. Nevertheless, their influence in the long run will have a positive impact and will encourage more defectors from the Syrian army.

In a previous post written more than a year ago, I pointed out that the only effective way to remove al Assad’s regime is through a military coup. Unfortunately, the fact is that the Chinese and Russian governments are part of the international political game and are using the Syrian tragedy to send a message to the U.S. and its western allies to stop interfering in the internal affairs of foreign states. What is going on under the Syrian umbrella is a continuation of the Cold War era. It is a tragedy that the Syrian population is paying a heavy price for it.

The President of the Second Egyptian Republic

During the past few days (June 29-30) a few important events took place in Egypt. The first event took place in Tahrir Square on the 29^th of June, when President M. Morsi addressed hundreds of thousands of Egyptians who were cheering for him. He took the first unofficial presidential oath, where he emphasized that the people of Egypt are the real authority. He stressed the fact that no other authority supersedes the people’s power and he promised to serve them faithfully and complete the unfinished objectives of the January 25^th Revolution.

The second important event, which took place on June 30^th, where President Morsi took the official oath in front of the members of the Egyptian constitutional higher court. After the oath, Morsi became the first official freely elected president of the second Egyptian Republic.  Egypt is entering a new stage of life under a freely and democratically elected president who will be responsible to the people who elected him.

The third important event was President Morsi addressing a large group of governmental and non-governmental officials at Cairo University. In his address, he expressed his appreciation at being elected to serve the Egyptian people. He admitted that Egypt faces many challenges, economically, politically and socially. He asked for the support of Egypt to progress and assume its true role as a progressive and modern nation.

The president stressed the fact that Egypt will regain its leading political role in the Arab world and Middle East region. He emphasized the need for the Palestinians to regain their rights and for the blood shed to stop in Syria. The president stressed that the security of the Arab world would be part of Egypt’s security as well.

Furthermore, he emphasized that Egypt will respect all agreements and treaties signed by previous Egyptian governments. Egypt will cooperate with foreign powers, but will not permit foreign interferences in Egyptian internal affairs.

In his address, President Morsi stressed his appreciation and thanked the Egyptian armed forces for their protection of people and support of the revolution.

On the national level, he promised to support social justice for all and that he would not permit any discrimination against people based on religious or ethnic affiliations. He said there would be equal treatment for all, especially for women who have been deprived of it.

He also stressed the pressing need for educational reform and more scientific research because it is the key to Egypt’s future progress.  Industrialization and tourism need to be revitalized in order to create new jobs for the unemployed millions of Egyptians.

President Morsi concluded his address at Cairo University by asking for the support of his political opponents as a must in order for Egypt to overcome the difficulties in the road ahead. President Morsi is a fighting personality and will not give up easily.

The third official ritual on that day was the official transfer of power from the hands of the Egyptian Higher Military Council to the newly elected President Morsi. The official ritual was held at the Egyptian Army Hikestep, where representative segments from the Egyptian army were present at the military base. During that meeting, General Tantawi, who is the head of the Armed Forces, performed the official ritual of transferring the political leadership to the newly elected president as they promised previously.

President Morsi thanked the Egyptian armed forces for their commitment of protecting Egypt and its people. He also stressed his support of the Egyptian army and its needs without any reservations. Such public support removed the circulating negative rumors between the newly elected president and members of the Egyptian Higher Military Council.

The new president seems to go to the extreme to accommodate the military, despite the fact that briefly before his election, they stripped the incoming president of many important political functions.

I still believe that the Egyptian Higher Military Council will not surrender their authority, regardless of who is in the president position. Time will tell. At the end of the ritual, General Tantawi presented President Morsi with the shield of the armed forces. It is considered the highes

The New President of the Second Republic of Egypt

The Egyptian Constitutional Higher Court has announced Dr. Mohamed Morsi as the winner of the presidential election.

True and democratic election has taken place in Egypt. More than 51.7% of the eligible voters have exercised their right for the first time in their life, and voted for Dr. Morse while 48.3% voted for Dr. Ahmad Shafik. The new Egyptian political model will definitely have an impact on the rest of the Arab world.

The advantage of Dr. Morsi being the first president of the second Egyptian Republic gives the Egyptian society a fresh start. It also reflects an end to the influence of the previous regime that Dr. Shafik represented.

Dr.Morsi has already declared, prior to the official election’s results, that he will nominate an independent prime minister. That is a prime minister who is not affiliated to his party “Freedom and Justice” and neither to the Muslim Brothers. I sincerely hope that he will implement what he has promised the Egyptian people.

 Regardless of the fact that the Egyptian revolution of January 25 is not completed, the result of the latest elections, however, will lead the new president to focus on the much needed revolutionary demands of the economic, political and social reforms. “Bread, Freedom, and Social Justice” was the slogan of the young, vanguard of the Egyptian Revolution.

I hope Dr. Shafik’s supporters will join their forces to support Dr.Morsi for the benefit of all Egyptians.

Revolution or Military coup

In a previous post (October 30, 2011), I pointed out that the Egyptian revolution of January 25^th was stalling and that it might turn into a military coup. Such an assessment has now turned into a reality. The Egyptian military, which has been in power for more than sixty years, is not ready to give it up.

The revolution came as a blessing for the Egyptian military generals, who were known to be unsupportive of Jamal Mubarak inheriting his father’s position. That fact and others encouraged the Egyptian military not to turn their guns against the protestors.

After the collapse of the Mubarak government on February 11, 2011, the Egyptian Higher Military Council began to prepare for a counter-revolution to stop any further revolutionary demands for political, economic, and social reforms.

The young Egyptian protestors were chanting, “Bread, freedom, and social justice.” The army generals who control between 20%-30% of the Egyptian economy anticipated a threat to their interests and the special privileges they have been enjoying for many decades without accountability.

The military general turned to the Muslim Brotherhood, who is the oldest and most organized political group, for an undeclared partnership for political support. Both groups have their own hidden agenda to implement, regardless of their impact on the others, but their               priority supersedes any other issue, except stopping any further demands by the revolutionary forces. For that and other reasons, both the Egyptian military and the Muslim Brotherhood joined forces and began to call on the protestors to stop their protests in Tahrir Square in order for the revolution to succeed and the economic wheel to start turning.

The Muslim Brotherhood did not condemn the killings of the young protestors in front of the Myspairo Square, the Mohamed Mahmoud Street, the Ministry of Interior, and in front of the prime minster’s headquarters. Many young Egyptian protestors were killed during the peaceful protests at these sites. The Military council always blamed a third unknown party for the killings.

In the meantime, the Muslim Brotherhood turned its face to the other side and was preparing to implement their hidden agenda. They were under the illusion that they have a religious-political mandate to lead the nation despite the fact that they were not the ones who began the revolution. They succeeded in pressuring the military general to postpone drafting a new constitution, electing a new parliament instead. They have succeeded in doing that. Second, the Muslim Brotherhood have also misled the Egyptian public on several occasions prior to the election, and they announced that their candidates would run in only 30% of the districts. They then said they would run in 50% of the districts and prior to the election they ran in all the districts. The Muslim Brotherhood, through their political party “The Freedom and Justice Party” ended up winning 46% of the pertinent seats, and the Salafi Muslims won 24% of the seats. Both political Islamic groups ended up controlling nearly 2/3 of the parliament seats.

The second blunder that the Muslim Brotherhood committed is their demand to control 50-60% of the committee designated to draft the new constitution, which was supposed to consist of 100 members. Their aim was to create a new constitution that meets their political objectives, but it did not materialize. The third blunder that the Muslim Brotherhood committed was also their first announcement that they would not have a candidate run for the position of president. They then ended up having a candidate run – Dr. M. Mursi – run. He received nearly 5.5 million votes and was the leading candidate. Dr. M. Shafik came in second out of the 13 candidates. Unfortunately, neither candidate was the desired one by the majority of the Egyptian population for the following reason:

First, Mr. Mursi represents the Muslim Brotherhood, which has lost credibility with many Egyptians for not being honest in terms of their public policy. Their reputations during more than one year in parliament are negative. No major accomplishment was made by them, despite the fact that they controlled parliament. For example, instead of focusing on major problems that the nation faces, such as the high unemployment and poverty rates, low wages, corruption, the continuous increases in food prices, and the shortages of gas for cooking and petrol for cars, some of their members are concerned with other insignificant issues such as decriminalizing female genital mutilation, stopping the production and consumption of liquor, and prohibiting tourists from wearing bikinis at Egyptian beaches. Such behavior on the part of the political Islamist parties caused many Egyptians to discredit them, politically speaking.

Finally, the blunders committed in parliament led the Egyptian Military Council to turn against them. The military council gave the Muslim Brotherhood enough rope to hang themselves with during the right moment. During the election of the members of parliament, members of the military council were aware that the Muslim Brotherhood violated the election law. However, they waited for more than a year to raise the issue.

The Egyptian Higher Constitutional Court responded to the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood violated the election law for parliament. The Court issued its verdict by dissolving the parliament.

The military council was waiting for such a decision and issued its order by implementing the court decision and closed the door of parliament.

Furthermore, two days before declaring the winner in the second round of elections for the presidential position, the military council issued a new binding rule to limit the authority of the newly elected president before the official announcement of who will be the winner. They announced their decision to create a new committee that will draft a new constitution in no more than three months. The military council assumed the legislative power as a result of the constitutional court verdict of dissolving parliament. The media announced that Dr. Mursi is the winner with 51.5% of all the votes cast after completing the counting. The Muslim Brotherhood, who has been waiting for more than eighty years, is ready to take over the government. Dr. Mursi gave a short speech thanking the Egyptian people for their support. He also stated that he would be the president for all Egyptians and that they will all be treated equally, regardless of their religious affiliation. He will be president of a civil, free, and democratic government.

Dr. Mursi should be given the chance to run the new government and every Egyptian should support him. He will implement what he said in his speech.

Finally I will say that the Egyptian military strategy was implemented with success. The revolution’s meager success so far is very significant for the following reasons. First, it removed the blanket of fear from authoritarian regimes so that political dictators do not emerge again. Second, Egyptians have experienced democracy and free elections for the first time in more than sixty years. Third, people began to experience the feeling of being free and expressing themselves without being prosecuted.

There are still more reforms that need to be implemented. Let us hope it will be accomplished by the incoming new government. The projection of Dr. Mursi as the winner was made before the official result of voting was made.

The Syrian Tragedy

The Arab Spring Revolution in Syria has turned into a civil war, drawing several national and international powers into the conflict.

More than a year ago, in 2011, I wrote that the only way for the spring revolution to succeed in Syria is if a military coup takes place to remove Bashar al-Assad from power.  Such a possibility is a remote one.  Since Hafez al-Assad assumed the presidency as a result of a military coup more than 30 years ago, he followed a security strategy by appointing relatives, friends, and mainly members from his Alawaii minority group into high and important positions in the army and other security institutions to prevent the possibility of a military coup against his regime.  For example, Bashar’s brother Maher is the commander of the national presidential guard.  It is known to be the most powerful and biggest regiment in the Syrian army.  No other regiment is permitted to come close to Damascus.  In 1981, an attempt of rebellion by the Muslim Brotherhood took place in Hama City, which led the Syrian army, under Rifaat al-Assad to attack the rebels.  It was reported that between 20,000 and 30,000 people were killed as a result of the heavy bombardment of the city.  Nevertheless, during the past year, a few hundred soldiers and officers have split from the regular army in protest of the brutality of the security forces against the Syrian protestors all over the country.  Those who deserted the army have created a freedom fighter force against the ruling regime.  They have created the “Free army” and its members are from the Muslim Sunni majority in Syria who constitute among 75% of the total population.  The Alawites, who control the government, constitute only 10-15% of the total population.  The Alawites are an offshoot of the Shiaa Muslim population, who constitute a minority group in Arab Islamic countries in the Middle East.  Only in Iraq and Iran do the Shiaa constitute a majority of the population.  The conflict between the Sunnis and the Shiaa has been going on for hundreds of years.

Unfortunately, the civil war in Syria is now turning into a conflict between the Sunni majority, who are calling for freedom and democracy from the ruling minority, who are in full control of the country.

Countries in the region with a dominant Shiaa majority, such as Iraq and Iran, are supporting the Syrian regime with armaments and even security forces sent by Iran to Syria.  Also, it was reported that the borders between Iraq and Syria are wide open for all sorts of help in support of the regime.  On the other hand, Arab Sunni regimes, especially in Gulf region, have been supporting the Sunni Muslim uprising in Syria.  The Saudi government has been the leading force in their support, by arming and financing the rebels in Syria.  They have also pulled their diplomatic missions from Syria.  The Syrian uprising has already created a political conflict between Sunnis and Shiaa in the Middle East region.

The impact of the Syrian conflict is turning into an international one, drawing more countries into the conflict and forcing them to take a stand, especially after the Houla Village massacre committed against unarmed civilians by the Syrian army.  It has been reported that more than 100 people, including many children, were shot to death.  The killing was condemned by the U.N.  However, Russia, China, and Iran have been defending the Syrian regime and are against foreign intervention in Syria.  The U.S. and most western European countries are supportive of the Syrian uprising.  The U.S. government in particular has been working with the Saudi government in providing armaments to the Syrian rebels, in additional to financial support.

Also, the Russian government has been sending armaments to Syria and is playing a role as a supporter of the Syrian regime.  It seems to me that the Russian government, which has a naval base in Syria, is now playing a new role, especially since the collapse of the previous communist regime.  The Syrian conflict is now providing a new arena for both super powers, the U.S. and Russia, to use the Syrian conflict as an excuse to flex their muscles on the international political stage.  However, I doubt very much that foreign military interference like the one that took place in Libya will take place in Syria.  It will be a destructive war for Syria and its people as a whole.

The Russian and Chinese governments who are permanent members of the U.N. Security council have rejected many attempts to impose sanctions on Syria by using the veto power.  The Arab League has attempted to play a role in bringing a peaceful settlement to the conflict, but has failed so far.  Also, the U.N. has attempted a similar approach by asking the previous U.N. Security General, Mr. Kofi Annan, to lead a mission in Syria that lead nowhere.

The Syria situation is getting worse and innocent civilians have paid a heavy price.  It has been estimated that more than 12,000 people have been killed so far.  There is no possible solution in sight to this conflict.

The Negative Results of the Egyptian Elections

For the first time in the 5,000 years of Egyptian history, more than 50 million people were eligible to vote for their first democratically elected president.  It is regrettable to say that less than half of Egyptians have exercised that right.  It has been reported that only 23.5 million Egyptians went to the polls to cast their votes.

The first winner was Dr. M. Moursi, who received 28% of the vote.  The second winner was Dr. A. Shafik, who received 24% of the vote.  The third winner was Mr. H. Sabahi, with 20% of the vote.  It also should be noted that Dr. A. Abou-el Fetouh and Mr. A. Mousa ranked fourth and fifth.  Both presidential candidates were ranked at the top prior to the election.

The result of the first round of elections was not anticipated by the majority of Egyptians, who expressed negative views and rejected the result. 

Many questions have been raised regarding the election results, especially about Dr. A. Shafik coming in second and being a candidate for the second round of elections on June 16^th and 17^th.

Protestors gathered in Midan al-Tahrir, objecting to Mr. Shafik as a possible president because he is viewed as an extension of the ex-Mubarak regime, which is considered a total violation of the objectives of the January 25^th revolution.

Dr. A. Shafik was appointed as prime minister by ex-president Mubarak on January 29^th, 2011, to crush the revolution, but this strategy failed.  Furthermore, Dr. Shafik was the minister of aviation in the previous cabinet.  He was considered a trusted and close friend of Mubarak.  Also, while as prime minister he facilitated the transfer of billions of dollars out of Egypt illegally.  Dr. Shafik’s hands are full of dirt and he should have been prevented from running for the position of president. 

The Egyptian parliament, prior to the election, passed a law preventing any members from the previous regime from running for a government position.  That law was sent to the Egyptian Constitutional Court to examine its legality and no decision was made regarding this.

I am of the opinion that Dr. Shafik is the candidate of the Egyptian Higher Military Council.  The military has been in power for 60 years and are not going to surrender many of the economic and political privileges that they enjoy.

There is no doubt that the Egyptian army protected the revolution during its first stage.  In reality, the revolution has succeeded in removing Mubarak and it put an end to the possibility of his son, Jamal, inheriting that position.  The army’s views on that possibility were well known – they objected to that scenario.  Nevertheless, after the removal of Mubarak on February 11, 2011, the Egyptian Higher Military Council, with the cooperation of the Muslim Brotherhood, developed a counter-revolution strategy to stop the demands of those who initiated the revolution and to curtail their influence.  This strategy was successful.  Both groups, the military council and the Muslim Brotherhood, have committed blunders that led to the instability of the political and economic situations that the country is facing.  For that reason and others, more than half of the Egyptians did not vote and the consequence of such actions led to the emergence of two undesired political candidates (Moursi and Shafik).  Both candidates ended up getting less than ¼ of the Egyptian vote.

The Egyptian mass media has been speculating about those who supported Dr. Shafik by referring to several groups with different rationales behind their decisions to cast their votes for Dr. Shafik.

1)   The majority of Egyptians Copts were fearful of political Islam’s control of Egypt and turning it into a conservative religion state.  Furthermore, Dr. Shafik publicly assured the group that if he is elected, he knows how to deal with Islamists.

2)   Many of the Mubarak supporters cast their votes for Dr. Shafik to protect their financial and political interests.  The election of Shafik, from their point of view, will be an extension of the Mubarak regime.

3)   Another group that didn’t participate in the previous election, many of them cast their votes for Dr. Shafik, because they were under the impression that the revolution brought instability, not security and safety, and their negative feelings regarding the increasing influence of political Islam played an influential role behind their support of Shafik.

4)   The money that was circulating, especially by advocates of Dr. Shafik, in popular neighborhoods where the poor reside, played a role in support of Shafik.  Also, many of these people are illiterate and lack the ability to make sound judgment in casting a vote.

There have been some demands made for the withdrawal of Dr. Shafik from the upcoming election, but that call will not be implemented.

Furthermore, other groups called on Dr. Moursi to withdraw from the election in favor of Mr. H. Sabahi, since the Islamists are in full control of the Egyptian parliament.  That call was also dismissed so far.  There is no doubt in my mind that the next two weeks of June 2012 might bring the unexpected.

The Ongoing Arab Spring Revolution

The Arab Spring Revolution is still an ongoing process, reflecting      democratic political progress, as is the case in Tunisia and Egypt.  On the other hand, political and military struggles are still going on in various forms, as is the case in Syria, where the regime is conducting a military civil war against its people.  No relief is in sight in Syria, except by the removal of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which has already killed more than ten thousand Syrians.

The situation in Yemen reflects an ongoing struggle between the supporters of the previous Yemeni president, Ali Saleh, and the new transitional government, headed by A.R. Mansour.  Many of Ali Saleh’s relatives are still in important military positions and have refused to surrender their authority, which has led to a division and conflict in the Yemeni army.  This situation enhanced the emergence of al-Qaeda in southern Yemen, which is posing a threat to the security of the Arab Gulf states and the U.S.  This situation led President Obama to sign a new law, which will penalize any state that contributes to the instability of Yemen.  Furthermore, the U.S. military is helping the Yemeni military forces attack al-Qaeda’s forces in southern Yemen.  The Yemeni situation is more complicated than the presence of al-Qaeda there.  More than half of the Yemeni population is living below the poverty index level, and in addition, the unemployment rates are high.  Also, Yemen is among the world’s five states that are most water poverty stricken.  This has impacted the agriculture sector.  Yemen depends on food imports.  Yemen needs a comprehensive economic development program that will lead to the creation of new jobs, which will impact the strength and influence of al-Qaeda in Yemen.  The U.S. and the oil-producing Arab Gulf states could play a constructive role that will be more influential in defeating al-Qaeda.  This would be more effective than the current military strategy.

The Libyan situation is still in a state of reorganizing its political situation to bring harmony to the various political groups and tribal affiliations that will lead the country to its first free political election.

Egypt will experience its first free and democratic presidential election in a few days (May 23^rd and 24^th, 2012).  Regardless of who will be elected, the Egyptian political model will have an impact on the rest of the Arab world.